A recent survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research has raised questions about how transformative Kamala Harris’ role as Vice President could be for America. Despite the fact that Harris seems to win the popularity contest among black registered voters, she fails to convince the same demographic about her potential to bring about significant changes in the country.
The mid-September poll suggests that the enthusiasm of Black voters for Harris is limited and fails to translate into trust in her ability to lead the nation onto a brighter path. Despite having a favorable image with around 70% of the respondents, the Vice President doesn’t seem to instil enough confidence among these voters in her ability to make a substantial difference in their lives.
Interestingly, there was no remarkable distinction between Black male and female voters in their perception of Harris. Regardless of gender or age, both younger and older Black voters exhibited similar lukewarm endorsement of the Vice President. This entails that Harris’ token image is not translating into a powerful sentiment that she can spearhead change.
In comparison, the study reflects an overwhelmingly unfavourable view of the former Republican President, Donald Trump among Black voters. This suggests that Trump might have a mountain to climb if he wishes to undercut Harris’ standing among Black men. However, it’s equally important to note that a favourable view doesn’t really mean confidence in leadership.
Despite having an advantage over Trump, Harris shouldn’t misconstrue this as an endorsement of her capabilities or potential to make a difference. The poll finds that a considerable majority of Black voters identify as Democrats, with only a mere 10% showing alignment with the Republican Party. However, Harris needs to work harder to transform these statistics into a solid belief in her potential.
A crucial factor highlighted in the poll is the uncertainty surrounding Harris’ potential impact on the country and on voters’ personal lives. A half-hearted belief was shared by Black voters that Harris could indeed make a difference in the country. Notably, only about half of them endorsed the statement that she could change the country ‘for the better.’
In addition to this, approximately three out of every ten Black voters gave her a ‘somewhat well’ on her potential to change the country, indicating a lukewarm response. Almost two out of ten went on to rate her ability to lead America onto a better path as ‘not very well’ or ‘not well at all.’ This again points to the mixed response Harris is receiving from her core voting demographic.
Moreover, an interesting finding of the study was the ambivalence expressed by Black voters about how impactful this presidential election would be on their lives. Roughly reckoning, only about 50 percent of respondents felt that this election would affect them to ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a bit,’ indicating a general air of indifference emanating from the voters.
Upon queries about the crucial issues that might influence their vote, the same black voters who exhibited affinity for Harris named her as the best-suited candidate to address their top concerns. These included areas such as the economy, healthcare, and crime. Again, it’s their affinity towards her, not their confidence in her problem-solving skills, which is in the foreground.
Just like the rest of the voters, about eight in ten Black voters asserted the economy as one of their key voting issues. Healthcare emerged as another crucial area of concern, with about 75 percent of the Black voters regarding this issue as important to their vote. In comparison, only slightly more than half of the registered voters shared this sentiment.
When it came to public safety concerns, Black voters showed a higher interest level than the general electorate, indicating gun policy and crime as core issues impacting their vote. However, this is not a clear indication of trust in Harris to handle these issues effectively.
Among Black voters, Harris seemed to have a strong edge over Trump, particularly in the domain of abortion policy, where she reportedly had a 60-point lead. Yet, the Republican campaign remains hopeful that Trump’s stances on economy, immigration, and traditional values may help bridge gaps within the Democrats’ traditional base amongst Black voters, particularly younger Black men.
The poll conducted from September 12 to 16, 2024, encapsulated insights from 1,771 registered voters. This sample was drawn from NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to maintain representative diversity from the U.S. population. Regardless of the statistics, it’s clear both politicians have a battle ahead in proving their efficacy to voters.
With a margin of sampling error at plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, the poll remains a study of perceptions and opinions. It is not a definitive test of trust nor a measure of future actions or impact. Given the mixed signals, it seems that Harris needs to step up her game if she expects more than superficial support from her core demographic.