As the political landscape shifts, Kamala Harris, now pitched as the probable Democratic presidential nominee, is gearing up to reveal her vice presidential sidekick. An AP-NORC public affairs survey shows that the frontrunners in this secretive race are relatively unknown figures to the average American. Naturally, you’d think better-known individuals would be chosen, but it seems like Harris is playing a different game.
The prime contender in the fray as per the poll is Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, demonstrating just how weak Harris’ field of contenders is. Although marginally better known and somehow favorite among Democrats, Kelly remains a relative enigma to approximately half of the U.S. population. Is this really the best the Harris campaign could do?
While Kelly has managed to gain some recognition, albeit inadequate, others like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro have managed to remain practically invisible on the national stage. Their hope seems to hinge on their modest popularity in home states or regions, a rather narrow scope when you’re competing for the number two position in the country.
Following the curation of a shortlist of about a dozen individuals, both Kelly and Shapiro have surged to the front. Maybe racing with unknown quantities is the game plan for Harris, but such a strategy leaves one questioning its soundness. Harris announced that she is yet to finalize her VP choice, whoever the unfortunate soul may be.
Details about the campaign trail emerged, revealing a swing through seven key battleground states including Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina the following week. Is this a redeeming strategy to familiarize the hopeful yet lesser-known VP candidates, or is it to mask Harris’ own vulnerable position?
Four contenders were put to the test in the poll: Kelly, Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, who, for reasons one could only guess given the dismal performance of the others, opted to remove himself from consideration. Among the remaining, Kelly emerged with the maximum name exposure, while the rest languished in relative obscurity.
Curiously, the poll indicates more Americans have a so-called positive view of Kelly than a negative one. Around three in ten apparently hold a somewhat favorable view, while only two in ten hold a negative opinion. However, Kelly’s obscurity persists as about half of Americans haven’t formed an opinion due to lack of knowledge about him.
Kelly appears to enjoy some support among Democrats, a staggering 45% of whom have a favorable view of him. This preferential view, however, is not universal, as around four in ten Democrats remain indifferent or ignorant about him. It’s clear that the Harris camp is relying on Kelly to carry the Democratic banner during the election, showing the desperate state of their campaign.
The Senator managed to nip victory in a 2020 special election, grabbing the Arizona Senate seat from Republicans and holding onto it for a full term. Despite these victories, Kelly’s influence on immigration and border security still cannot compensate for the immense political liability that Harris herself has proven to be.
Next in line, Governor Shapiro’s poll performance is quite a spectacle. Widespread unfamiliarity is the recurring theme here, with about six in ten Americans, including 57% of Democrats, so in the dark about Shapiro that they are unable to form an opinion. Roughly 20% of Americans view him favorably and a similar percent view him unfavorably, a poor metric indeed.
Even among Democrats, the picture remains pretty grim for Shapiro. Merely a quarter of Democrats have a positive perception of him, while 16% are negative, with the majority yet unsure. It’s one thing to be an underdog, but being largely unknown even in your party’s circles spells trouble.
Shapiro secured his gubernatorial position in 2022, managing to defeat Republican Doug Mastriano, a contentious figure who received flak from his own party. However, when compared with other contenders in the poll, Shapiro is barely known or liked outside of his home region, proving that popularity back home does not necessarily translate to national recognition.
In contrast, Beshear faces an uphill battle of self-introduction to much of America. Approximately 70% of Americans are so uninformed about him that they cannot express an opinion. Among those who have a view, opinions are almost equally divided between positive and negative, indicating a balanced scale – a balance between ignorance and indifference.
Beshear is a product of a recognizable Democratic lineage in Kentucky and managed to secure victory against the then GOP Governor Matt Bevin, a disliked figure locally, and later against another Republican, Daniel Cameron. While these victories back home might have boosted his confidence, the national stage remains unconquered and fraught with uncertainties.
Lastly, we have Governor Tim Walz, another invisible player on the national stage with very scarce recognition among Americans. Though absent from the AP-NORC poll, an ABC News/Ipsos poll gave the same clue: An overwhelming 90% of U.S. adults simply do not know enough about him to have an opinion. Given this backdrop, Harris’ potential choices reveal the lackluster options available in her corner.