Vice-president Kamala Harris is gearing up to unveil her choice of running mate in the near future, a decision fraught with uncertainty. An AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll indicates the top picks in contention are relatively unknown quantities to the majority of the American public. In a perplexing twist of fate, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly emerges slightly higher in the name recognition and favorability charts, particularly amid Democrats. However, his fame or lack thereof holds little weight, as approximately 50% of the populace still report being unfamiliar with his persona.
After President Biden proclaimed his exit, Kamala Harris ascended to being the probable Democratic presidential nominee. Presenting a puzzling scenario, the poll unveiled the enigmatic strengths and vulnerabilities various politicians would contribute to an alliance with Harris, as well as possible hurdles they could encounter if chosen. Despite somewhat greater recognition, Kelly is comparably obscure to half of Americans. Alternatives like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, with a lesser national profile, might capitalise on sturdier support reservoirs in their native states.
Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly are seen as potential frontrunners, insiders indicate. Harris’ campaign team launched vetting with a list of approximately a dozen names, while she herself announced not having made a final decision regarding her running mate. However, what’s certain is that Harris and her pick will travel to key electoral battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina next week. How well this strategy will work in securing popularity for her choice is yet to be seen.
When it comes to potential Democratic vice-presidential contenders, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper were evaluated in the poll. Cooper excused himself from any consideration post-poll. Intriguingly, Kelly exhibits the highest favorability and recognizability amongst the lot according to the AP-NORC poll. However, despite being a potential frontrunner, about half of America is in the dark about his standing or relevance.
Americans are more prone to exhibit a positive disposition towards Kelly, rather than a negative view. Surprising as it might be, 3 out of 10 individuals in the US demonstrate somewhat favorable regard for him, with merely 2 out of 10 harboring a negative perception. However, this is not at all reminiscent of a national household name for Kelly. Even among Democrats, the likelihood to express warm sentiments towards him is substantially high.
45% Democrats favor Kelly, while approximately 1 out of each 10 have a contradictory view. The biggest support block is older Democrats, 45 years and above, who seem especially positive about Kelly. Conversely, the younger demographic appears more oblivious of his existence. Despite these fragmentary opinions, he has historically proven his campaign abilities by winning a special election in Arizona in 2020, turning the Senate seat from Republican to Democratic control. He then held onto it for a six-year term.
Kelly, a Navy veteran known amongst Democrats for his stance on immigration and border security, sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, an influential Democratic voice. Meanwhile, Harris is often criticized for her weak stance on these matters. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is similarly unfamiliar to most Americans and Democrats, barring those in the Northeast where he enjoys some name recognition and favorability. Approximately 6 in 10 Americans, including 57% of Democrats, plead ignorance when it comes to Shapiro.
Only two out of ten Americans possess favorable views of Shapiro, with a similar portion holding unfavorable ones. Among Democrats, this arguably gloomy image doesn’t fare much better with about a quarter having a positive view and 16% holding a negative view. Most Democrats, particularly younger ones, yet harbor indecisive views about Shapiro. However, he’s perceived without ambiguity in his homeland region. In the Northeast, the approval rate for Shapiro stands at 40%.
Shapiro, who clinched the governor post in 2022 and beat off controversial Republican figure Doug Mastriano, is more popular at home. Still, the sentiments are diversified; 2 out of every 10 Northeast’s inhabitants exhibit negative views. On the flipside, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, if chosen by Harris, would need to expend significant efforts to familiarize himself on a national level. Around 70% of Americans admit to knowing nothing about him. Among them, favorability and unfavorability rates hang in almost equally delicate balance.
Regarding Beshear, the positives and negatives among national adults are almost evenly pitched at 17% and 15% respectively. However, Democrats lean more towards favorability. Specifically, one out of each four possesses a somewhat favorable view, while only about 1 out of 10 holds a negative view. In contrast, a massive 65% are still uncertain about where they stand on Beshear. Despite these odds, he has been successful in his state, defeating the unpopular Governor Matt Bevin of the Republican Party.
Beshear, a product of a well-accepted Democratic lineage in his home state, managed to win reelection against Republican Daniel Cameron, protégé of then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. His emphatic stance on abortion rights played a significant role in his victory with a campaign ad featuring a sexual assault survivor critiquing Cameron for his rigid stands. However, the recognition Beshear has inside the borders of his state might not suffice on the national platform.
Discussing other possible contenders, the national profile of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is remarkably low. Walz, also a 12-year veteran in the House, recently elevated in Harris’ shortlist, arousing ambiguity in the political corridors. The Democrat picked up Walz’s ‘weird’ descriptor for the Republican ticket, and it has since become a rallying cry. However, only 10% of all American adults could formulate a view on him, which makes the water even murkier for Harris. Clearly, Governor Harris’ pool of choices for her running mate seems both obscure and mediocre – something the American people cannot afford at this critical time.