As Democrats rally behind Kamala Harris, the tussle for the presidency has degenerated into a hodgepodge of insipidity. According to recent New York Times/Siena College polls, the battleground states of Sun Belt appear to be hanging in the balance with Harris barely towing ahead in North Carolina and Arizona, while Donald J. Trump manages a lead in Georgia and Nevada. It’s wise to discard the state-wise confusing results as anomalous, instead, seeing the broader picture might do justice to the analysis. In these four pivotal states, it’s a toss-up for the election, laying bare the uninspiring campaign run by the Democrats.
Trump may have to secure Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona to claim a November victory, a challenge the Democrats don’t seem to be putting up much of a fight against. In a turn of events, relative percentages in support for both candidates across the Sun Belt are eerily reminiscent of a past we thought we’d left behind. The average lead by Biden across these states in the 2020 elections was a mere 0.4 points, a number that Kamala Harris currently grapples with. What should have been a natural progression toward a Democratic victory suddenly looks quite dubious.
The purported strength Trump leveraged over Biden among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, as surprising as it was, is seen to have propelled him ahead in these racially diverse states. Among the younger demographic of voters, aged 18 to 29, Harris holds a lead of 55-39 across these states but this doesn’t carry the weight it should, given the usual Democratic stronghold among young and Hispanic voters. Harris falls short of expectations significantly indicating that having a Black Democrat at the apex of the ticket is not driving the vote as expected.
Representation of Harris among the Black voters further dampens hope for a Democratic win, with percentages negatively deviating from the standard tendency of such cohorts to lean toward a Democrat. The most we can expect is a drifting alignment with usual demographic lines as the election looms. Could this be indicative of a trend toward racial and generational depolarization, in spite of the Democratic ticket’s attempt at playing the diversity card? This perspective, while interesting, is still skeptically met, given the lukewarm response Harris has been receiving.
Diving into state-wise results can be perplexing for those politically inclined, especially in light of contrasting data from the previous Northern battleground polls. Here, Harris held a consistent 50-46 lead, starkly different from the results in North Carolina, a state that voted for Trump in the 2020 elections. In North Carolina, Harris has clawed ahead but Trump steals the limelight with a substantial four-point lead in Georgia, making the six-point difference between the two states seem a compelling riddle.
When scrutinizing the polling data, the results from Georgia are perhaps the most decipherable. Comparisons with previous polls show a consistent backing of Trump over Biden, setting the state aside as predominantly Republican, a trend substantiated by its demographic diversity. The considerable Republican sway contrasts earlier polling that suggested Biden might have a chance with the nonwhite section of voters.
Results from North Carolina, on the other hand, become harder to decipher since this is the first poll from the state during this cycle. One aberration that stands out is the higher likelihood of white Democrats in North Carolina to respond, compared to white Republicans. By contrast, Harris enjoys a somewhat better performance in Arizona where the potential responses of the two demographics are nearly the same.
The New York Times/Siena poll is fairly in line with The Cook Political Report survey conducted by two professional partisan firms. Both surveys reflect a noticeable strength of Harris in North Carolina. However, keep in mind that in 2020, the margin of triumph for Trump was just 1.35 points. The illusion that consequential disparities exist between the two correlating states, Georgia and North Carolina, arises due to a victory for Biden in the former.
It’s not farfetched to anticipate that North Carolina might swing more toward Democrats than Georgia in the 2024 elections. This could be credited to two main factors: the higher white voter turnout in North Carolina and the shifting loyalties of affluent ‘Never Trump’ Republicans. The latter group could turn out to be a more significant obstacle for Harris, placing Democrats in a precarious position.
However, the merit of these conjectures is still debatable and the probability of North Carolina registering a shift of over 1.6 points toward the Democrats is arguable. The unpredictable variances in state oscillations pose a challenge for definitive conclusions, leaving us all in speculative waters.
Interestingly, where Biden had an edge over the likely voters in comparison to the broader group of registered voters, we see a reversal with Harris. Harris leads the pack among voters who proclaim they’re very likely to vote, yet she falls behind when it comes to those unlikely to vote. This is another element of uncertainty underlining the Republican-led preference among certain demographic groups.
Amid all the speculation and ambiguity surrounding this year’s election, it is evident that the Democrats’ choice of showcasing ‘diversity’ in their ticket, with Kamala Harris at the forefront, is not delivering as expected. Instead, it has left voters puzzled, skeptical, and in a quandary, allowing the Republican stronghold to not only persist but possibly fortify. Is this the much-touted ‘normal’ we all rooted for?