Micheal Martin, showing determined leadership, has underscored the necessity of immediately commencing the tasks at hand, following the impressive performance of his Fianna Fail party in Ireland’s general election. Fianna Fail, showing its dominance, is on the trajectory to garner the majority of seats in the Dail parliament, with Mr. Martin readying for another tenure as taoiseach.
The strenuous vote counting process has extended into its third day; currently, over 160 out of 174 Dail seats have been determined. The probable outcome now is a government formation involving Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, overshadowing the prospect of including the permanent main opposition party, Sinn Fein.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, two centrist groups who have held unrivalled influence over Irish politics for countless decades, were in the last coalition government. Both were unified in their stance to exclude Sinn Fein from governance before the previous election. Hence, it is anticipated that this pattern will continue if they can establish a successful coalition together.
Despite Fianna Fail’s destiny to come out with the highest number of seats, there have been some hiccups. The party’s health minister, Stephen Donnelly, suffered a significant setback when he lost his seat in Wicklow in the early voting rounds.
Donnelly had been projected to encounter staunch resistance in the district due to boundary shifts that reduced it from five to four seats. He ceded the last available seat to Edward Timmins, a candidate from Fine Gael.
Should there be a repeat of the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael ruling coalition from the previous term, there arises a substantial concern around the taoiseach’s position. Specifically, whether the practice of alternating this premier role between the two coalitions will persist in the new government.
The 2020 scenario resulted in a coalition formation under the condition that the prime position would alternate midway during the term. However, this time around, Fianna Fail may potentially extend its lead in seat numbers over Fine Gael, leading to a noticeable gap compared to the tight race of the previous round.
The significant disproportion in the parties’ numbers will likely steer the conversation towards the rotating taoiseach framework, stirring queries about its continuation in the next coalition. If it were to proceed, the determining factors of its initiation would then become the center of attention.
On another note, Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe has stated his support for Mr. Harris to serve another term as taoiseach. In light of the current circumstances, the current deputy premier added, ‘We’ll allow the time for the situation to normalize and relish the moment. We will then evaluate the political landscape and formulate our strategies over the next couple of days.’
Interestingly, another major narrative that emerged from the election was the near total loss of seats from the Green Party. The Green Party, who were the less dominant partner in the departing coalition, suffered an immense loss, maintaining only 1 of the 12 seats it held in 2020.
Proving their popularity, Fianna Fail emerged at the top winning the most first preference votes in the proportional representation contest with a strong 21.9% lead over Fine Gael’s 20.8%. Coming in the third position with 19% of the votes was Sinn Fein.
The final distribution of the primary preferences contest further confirms the party popularity rankings from the previous day’s exit poll data. Although it provides a snapshot of the parties’ likely outcomes, the actual seats won can vary depending on the complicated and oftentimes unpredictable vote transfer allocation process.
Should Fianna Fail and Fine Gael regain power, they may need to collaborate with one of Dail’s minor parties to hit the 88-seat majority mark. Alternatively, they might seek the alliance of independent TDs. The Social Democrats and the Irish Labour Party, having performed well in this election, present as probable minor allies in this circumstance.