A significant political event unfolded in the European Union’s Alpine country, Austria, on Sunday, as citizens went to cast their ballots in a significant general election. The race was closely monitored as it harbored the potential for the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe) to edge out the conservatives, marking its first national vote victory in history. However, despite the high stakes, uncertainties lingered around the feasibility of government formation in the event of an FPOe win, primarily due to the complex dynamics of coalition politics.
In its history, the FPOe has been a part of the government on multiple occasions but standing victorious in a national vote remains uncharted territory for it. Under the aggressive yet effective leadership of Herbert Kickl, the party experienced a resurgence following its bout with corruption allegations in 2021. Interestingly, this renaissance was majorly facilitated by the escalating voter grievances related to migration issues, the inflationary economic environment, and the instituted Covid restrictions.
The FPOe’s resurgence isn’t an isolated event, as it finds parallels in similar far-right movements gaining momentum across Europe. Presently, the FPOe enjoys the approval of about 27% of the electorate, as per the opinion polls. Such strong support from a significant fraction of Austria’s population has ostensibly shaken the ruling establishment – the conservative People’s Party (OeVP).
In recent weeks, however, the OeVP, under its dynamic leadership, has rallied to close the widening popularity gap with the FPOe. The OeVP has centered its narrative around the promise of ‘stability in the face of chaos’. As of the latest public opinion polls, the party basks in approximately 25% electoral support, a slight decrease from FPOe’s current standing, yet a significant achievement, nonetheless.
On the day of the election, polling booths were operational from 7:00 am (0500 GMT) and were scheduled to close by 5:00 pm. The electorate anxiously awaited projections based on postal voting and counts from stations that closed earlier, expected to be broadcast shortly after the closure of the last booth. A significant proportion of Austria’s inhabitants – over 6.3 million out of a total of nine million, were eligible to cast their votes.
The FPOe has been no stranger to government, making its political debut in a coalition with the conservatives in the year 2000, a move that had sparked intense protests domestically and invited sanctions from Brussels. The years that followed have seen the popularity of far-right parties steadily rise across the continent. Outgoing governments, on the other hand, have been placed on the backfoot, struggling to defend their positions amidst a series of crises, the Covid pandemic, and more recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The rhetoric against the European Union’s measures against Russia and the criticism of the outgoing government’s actions played a central role in Kickl’s public addresses. This, coupled with Austria becoming a preferred refuge during the peak of the 2015 migrant crisis, helped the Freedom Party garner substantial support amongst the Austrian populace.
Meanwhile, the Greens, junior coalition partners in the current government, have been trailing at eight percent in opinion polls. Political analysts, however, caution against premature conclusions. Widely held predictions suggest that despite a potential win accruing the most seats, the FPOe might find itself in a tough spot to find enough seats or suitable partners to form a government.
Discussions about coalitions to prevent Kickl from becoming Chancellor have often included possibilities of as yet untried alliances. An intriguing proposition is a three-party coalition with the ruling OeVP at the helm, the Social Democrats (garnering just over 20% as per current polls) as one partner and the liberal NEOS as a potential third partner.
The chances of the OeVP-FPOe coalition re-emerging are also not completely ruled out, especially if the OeVP manages to garner the majority of the seats, or at least perform on par with the FPOe. The shared views on many areas and the potential for ‘creative solutions’ to manage any disagreement regarding Kickl also build a case for this possibility.
Yet, history seems to create a shadow of doubt on the potential durability of such a coalition. Previous instances of OeVP-FPOe governments ended prematurely. The most recent one, which disintegrated following an intense FPOe corruption scandal in 2019, barely managed to stay in power for one and a half years.