The escalating dispute between Hamas and Israel is fueling worry among numerous migrant laborers, predominantly those in Lebanon and Jordan, over their job stability in a progressively unstable region. With the outbreak of the war in October of the previous year, unease has seeped into Iran and Lebanon. Specialists warn that persistent escalation of the conflict might have serious consequences for the economy of Bangladesh. This is because approximately 6 million Bangladeshi workers are stationed in the Middle East.
The continuance of this crisis places remittances, an essential income source for numerous households, at risk, and could also influence sectors such as ready-made clothing (RMG) and energy. Anxiety and doubt continue to engulf remittance earners and stakeholders, particularly in Lebanon where the Bangladesh embassy has started the process for repatriating workers who wish to go back to their homeland.
As per an unofficial count, Lebanon currently harbors around 100,000 Bangladeshi workers. As a result of the Israeli aggression that began in the latter part of September this year, at least 15,000 Bangladeshis have lost their job in Southern Lebanon and moved to the capital, Beirut. Among those, around 1,800 have registered with the Bangladesh embassy in Beirut for repatriation till Thursday.
The first group of 47 migrants, including their children tallying up to 54, will be departing today under the arrangements by the Bangladesh embassy and are expected to land in Dhaka tomorrow. Jordan, sharing its borderline with both the West Bank and Israel, is also a host to over 100,000 Bangladeshi workers. These primarily comprise talented female garment workers.
The potential of the dispute to spill over into Jordan is setting off alarm bells, given the already considerable refugee population in the country. Labor facilitators point out deteriorating conditions surrounding Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to create a ripple effect across the entire region, with the most significant impact on the six Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain.
In the past fiscal year, these states jointly contributed $11.78 billion in remittances, accounting for more than 49% of Bangladesh’s total remittance income, as per data from the Bangladesh Bank. Analysts are urging for a ‘rescue plan’. Roughly 40% of Bangladeshi workers in Lebanon are women, who are predominantly employed as housemaids.
In addition to this, many individuals are employed in sectors such as services and manufacturing. Mohammad Jalal Uddin Sikder, a migration expert and faculty member of Political Science and Sociology at North South University, stated ‘A rescue plan for the Bangladeshis should be contemplated if the conflict heightens and further extends.’
He urged ‘Prioritizing rescue operations, providing financial aid upon their return, and exploring their reemployment in other job markets should be considered in case of job loss resulting from the war’. Furthermore, he highlighted that if the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is obstructed due to conflict, this could potentially interrupt fuel supplies.
‘In the event Iran is under attack, the likelihood of retaliation by closing off supply routes would increase, making Bangladeshis working in neighboring countries vulnerable to unemployment.’ He also pointed to the challenge of safe repatriation of migrants who are apprehensive to return owning to heavy investments made to secure their current positions and the low visibility of what they would do upon returning.
He pointed out that ‘Despite being aware of the threats, they prefer to stay due to the uncertainty surrounding what awaits them back home. Among the repatriation registrants, nearly 90% have become undocumented, introducing additional complications. Arrangements need to be made to secure clearances for them, and efforts are underway to waive any related fees.’
The governments have taken the responsibility to bear the costs for those who wish to return. If people begin returning from Lebanon, preparations must commence promptly. ‘Creating a database for returning migrants to facilitate their reintegration, and scouting new employment markets in Europe should be considered’, he proposed.
Apparel exporters are expressing concern. As per industry insiders, while apparel exports to the Middle East continue to grow, exporters expect the market to surpass the $5 billion mark over the next five years. However, the persistent conflicts pose a great risk to this emerging regional market. If the current tensions were to escalate into a full-blown war, the global economic impact could be catastrophic.
The instability may encourage brands to hesitate before placing orders, leading to slowing trade activity in the region. Meanwhile, due to the tension, shipping companies are avoiding the Red Sea, opting to reroute their vessels around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope, which adds one to two weeks to trips. Almost 90% of the container ships that were transiting through the Suez Canal are now navigating around the tip of Africa, escalating freight costs for a standard 40-foot container from China to northern Europe.