In a certain quarter in the northeastern part of the capital, disparity and prosperity are closely intertwined, with the populace expressing dissatisfaction with the present state of affairs. The northeast inner city of Dublin, Ireland is noticeably adorned with campaign banners from the recent electoral poll, hung high on light poles and abandoned structures. The close-knit competition among Ireland’s three main political factions: Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin was apparent, as the poll figures stood at 21 percent, 20 percent, and 19 percent respectively.
In the northeast section of Dublin, the lamp posts were practically wallpapered with campaign signs. Each sign fervently vied for voter attention ahead of the national elections on Friday. But for some, like Janice O’Keeffe, a 44-year-old local having morning coffee at a café, the decision was still up in the air. One thing for sure, she expressed a deep-seated disapproval of the core political establishment.
For a century, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, Ireland’s two center-right dominant parties, have had the opportunity to leave their mark. Unimpressed by their performance, O’Keeffe was far from the only one with such sentiments. These two parties, since the birth of the modern Irish state in the early 1900s, have governed Ireland intermittently. During the 2020 elections, neither party managed to secure a substantial majority to govern singlehandedly.
Having failed to govern individually, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were then compelled to form a coalition, welcoming the Green Party into their rows. This alliance succeeded in keeping their main opponent, Sinn Féin, from power in spite of their popular vote victory. Now, with another election looming, a common thread of disappointment is emerging among voters, with major concerns such as healthcare, living expenses, and immigration at the forefront.
In Dublin’s city center, supporters of Sinn Féin, the left-wing nationalist party, rally outside governmental edifices. The party is urging the discontented to cast their votes in their favor as the only credible opposition. Yet, the likely outcome is the sustaining hold of the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael duopoly, due to neither party’s desire to merge with Sinn Féin, a party that was formerly marginalized for its affiliations with the Irish Republic Army.
In the latest survey from The Irish Times, vote predictions for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin are statistically tied. However, for the inhabitants of Dublin’s northeast inner-city, the voter issues are especially critical. The district is a stark display of contrasting affluence and poverty, revealing the deeply-rooted economic divide that has worsened over time.
Moreover, a surge in commercial activities and the inflow of multi-national employees, drawn in by Ireland’s corporate tax breaks, fuels the sense of social exclusion among the laid-back communities. The cleavage was further exposed in the aftermath of a violent incident a year ago, involving a knife attack that led to a night of riots and pillage. The violence served as a stark reminder of the unresolved societal issues embedded in the underbelly of the city.
The soaring demand for housing amidst a shortage of rental properties has reached a crisis point, fueled by successive governments’ failure to provide adequate public housing. Furthermore, alongside the highest level of immigration since 2007, the increasingly negative narratives surrounding foreigners have created a strain on the Irish populace. Jonathan Dowling, a figurehead of the Belvedere Youth Club in the inner city, suggests a focus on the youth in this divided environment.
Dowling’s approach is not strictly admonitory but more about creating a platform for the young population to understand their choices and opportunities. For Dean Murray, another youth worker who also grew up in the area, the community’s bond is more potent than the negative stereotypes. He shares that for most locals, the cost of living and scarcity of housing are principal issues, saying ‘I think people just want change from that constant cycle of government promising and not delivering.’
Reflecting the range and complexity of Ireland’s issues, the candidates standing for Dublin Central’s four seats are a diverse group. They range from the established center-right players to Mary Lou McDonald, leader of Sinn Féin, progressive left-wing candidates, a nationalist anti-immigration candidate, to Gerry Hutch, a man known in legal circles as a crime family leader.
Representing the center-left Social Democrats, Gary Gannon was rallying for votes in the inflating evening shadows, the prime concerns being housing and a more tolerant perspective on immigration. In contrast, Malachy Steenson, a right-wing nationalist candidate advocating an anti-immigration stance, has a vision flavored by nationalistic pride and catered to his own community’s needs.
Despite this starkly contrasting electoral landscape, the longer-term reality may still favor the enduring duopolists, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. According to Gail McElroy, a politics professor at Trinity College Dublin, the political system is designed to maintain balance and guard against extreme swings through its ranked voting system. This rewards less radical positions, thereby providing continued insulation for the establishment.
As Sinn Féin strives to capitalize on citizens’ disenchantment, leader Mary Lou Mcdonald has called on non-traditional voters to lend their support in the coming election. Even so, the encapsulating system may yet shield the establishment, proving once again that the politically rasa mcgregor in Ireland lean towards stability over major upsets.