U.S. crime statistics have a tendency to ebb and flow, and the first half of 2024 showcased one such relatively quieter phase, as the Federal Bureau of Investigation data reports. This trend, however, has been misguidedly hailed by some as a proof of action from the Biden-Harris administration. Their claim is that the 10.3% drop in violent crimes, along with significant reduction of murders, reported rapes, and robberies during this period, compared to the same time in 2023, is a testament to the administration’s ‘firm’ measures on crime.
This claim, however, quickly loses credibility, not least because the quoted figures were sourced from just approximately 77% of the law enforcement agencies throughout the nation. It remains to be answered why the remaining data from quite a significant number of agencies wasn’t incorporated in the report, casting shadows over the ‘reassuring’ numbers presented by the Democrats.
Furthermore, the timing of these reports coincides quite conveniently with the Crime in the Nation statistics released on September 23. Mirroring these same trends, these annual data showed a lull in violent crime levels from 2022 to 2023. However, the select framing of these crime statistics ignores the broader realities.
Predictably, this ‘favorable’ information led to some moments of jubilation within the Democrat quarters. Despite the fact that the Trump has cast valid doubt on the Biden-Harris administration’s efficiency with regards to crime prevention, there is an attempt to rebuff these criticisms and instead celebrate perceived victories. Emblems of these attempts include the pointed statements against Harris, particularly Trump’s remark at Erie, Pennsylvania that Harris should face impeachment and prosecution for insufficient border control.
Moreover, Trump’s suggestion that a ‘really violent day’ could end crime in the state got the wheels turning as it threw light on the administration’s inability to divorce their approach to crime control from short-term strategies and immediate apparent effects.
In terms of voter perspectives on this issue, a Pew poll conducted in late August to early September, showed a disturbing 61% registered voters citing violent crime as the prime influencer of their decision. The leading narratives in the election campaign showcased a tussle about who could better handle these problems.
Trump demonstrated some advantage in this area, albeit not a definite one, as polls showed mixed results. A YouGov poll from September indicated 54% respondents having faith in Trump dealing with crime ‘very’ or ‘somewhat well’ if he was elected, with the figure for Harris being lower at 46%.
Interestingly, other polls from Reuters and Ipsos in late August, placed Harris on par with Trump regarding crime control, both holding 40% confidence. This margin signaled a reduction from Trump’s five-point lead in July, although one must consider the small sample size and limited period of these polls.
Surprisingly, subsequent surveys in mid-September, conducted by The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, painted a similar picture, revealing an equally distributed confidence vigil, with both candidates receiving 38% votes on the question of who could handle crime better.
While the exact reason for the promising crime figures still remains in the shrouds, the Biden-Harris administration was quick to credit these numbers to their policies. The authenticity of this claim, however, remains questionable.
The administration is seen falsely attributing the drastic reduction in homicides to the American Rescue Plan, signed into law in March 2021. The idea that a whopping $15 billion being injected into public safety and violence preventative measures is what is ‘keeping cops on the beat’ is as preposterous as it sounds. It’s an exaggeration that conveniently omits the concrete dynamics of law enforcement and the variables that underpin crime.
The assertion, stating that ‘Americans are safer today than when Vice President Harris and I took office’ a grandiose self-praising statement, lacks tangible evidence and is seen as a political maneuver rather than an accurate depiction of America’s well-being.
The illusion of safety projected by such statements creates a rather false sense of security among the public and could lead to a lack of urgency in addressing the crime issues that the country truly faces.
While dropping crime rates are always good news, they should not be used as a tool for maneuvering the public sentiment or wasting time in self-aggrandizing acts while ignoring the practical needs of the society.
The discussion around crime figures and who can best combat crime will inevitably continue to be at the forefront of political debate. However, the focus should always remain on creating effective strategies for long-term crime reduction and not on scoring short-term political points.
Finally, what these figures and the associated political commentary show is a need for a grounded, realistic and concerted approach to tackling crime in America, rather than falling into the trap of momentary crime waves and the manipulative talking points they can often give rise to.