The Los Angeles Dodgers (21-14) are set to begin a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (19-15) this Monday at American Family Field. The first pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET and will be broadcasted on MLB Network. This marks the first meeting between these two teams in 2023, with the Dodgers having won the season series 4-3 in 2022.
In their most recent game, the Dodgers beat the San Diego Padres 5-2 in a 10-inning contest, featuring on Sunday Night Baseball. However, the team now faces a tough turnaround as their United Airlines charter flight didn’t land until 4:23 a.m. ET, leaving them to check into the team hotel just before sunrise. One has to wonder about the MLB schedule maker’s choices sometimes.
Despite these travel struggles, the Dodgers have been playing well, securing eight wins in their last nine games. It’s worth noting, though, that their road game record has been less impressive, with a 2-3 standing in the past five games away from home.
The Brewers, on the other hand, recently snapped a six-game losing streak with a convincing 7-3 win over the San Francisco Giants while playing on the west coast. Returning to Milwaukee at a more reasonable time of 12:20 a.m. ET, the Brewers have the comfort of sleeping in their own beds, which may provide them with an advantage in the upcoming series.
The projected starting pitchers for this matchup are RHP Tony Gonsolin for the Dodgers and RHP Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. Gonsolin (0-0, 3.38 ERA) is set to make his third start and has a 1.50 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9, and 4.5 K/9 in eight innings.
In Gonsolin’s last start, he received a no-decision after pitching 4 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs, five hits, two walks, and three strikeouts in a 13-4 home win against the Philadelphia Phillies last Monday. In addition, Gonsolin only allowed two hits, three walks, and one strikeout in 3 1/3 scoreless innings in his only previous road start against the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 26 for his regular-season debut.
For the Brewers, Peralta (3-2, 3.63 ERA) will make his seventh start, boasting a 1.27 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and an impressive 10.6 K/9 in 34 2/3 innings pitched. In his last start, Peralta came away with a no-decision after working six innings, giving up two earned runs, seven hits, three walks, and striking out ten in a 3-2 road loss to the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday.
Peralta’s home splits this season show promising signs, with a 3-1 record, 2.66 ERA (23 2/3 IP, seven earned runs), and a .188 opponent batting average (OBA) in four starts. These numbers could give the Brewers added confidence against the Dodgers.
Looking at the Dodgers vs. Brewers odds, the Moneyline (ML) has the Dodgers at -105 (bet $105 to win $100) and the Brewers at -115 (bet $115 to win $100). The Run Line (RL) / Against the Spread (ATS) is set at Dodgers -1.5 (+155) and Brewers +1.5 (-190). Lastly, the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 8.5 with Over at -115 and Under at -105.
Baseball fans, particularly those with a conservative outlook, might consider taking a shot at the Brewers (at -115) in this series opener. Peralta has been solid at home this season, providing three quality starts in his four total home outings, including a win against the Detroit Tigers on April 26.
Given the Dodgers’ recent challenging travel schedule and likely fatigue, it’s entirely possible that the Brewers’ extra rest and home-field advantage could make a significant difference in the outcome of this game.
While the Brewers +1.5 (-190) is slightly out of the preferred limit of -180 for a standalone bet, it’s worth noting that Milwaukee hasn’t cashed as the favorite in five consecutive outings. Additionally, the Brewers have a 2-11 record in their past 13 games on the run line as favorites. That being said, the Brewers do receive the advantage of a run of insurance on Monday.
Conversely, the Dodgers have shown resilience as underdogs, winning three straight games and covering the run line in each contest. However, the outcome of the game could be swayed by the advantage the Brewers have in personal endurance, so it’s best to pass on this particular bet.
Finally, the most enticing bet on the board might be the Under 8.5 (-105), primarily due to the Dodgers’ jet lag factor. The MLB schedule has not been kind to the Dodgers, as they will have been in Milwaukee for just about 14 hours prior to the first pitch. Brewers fans will note that the Under has hit in four of their past five series openers and 4-1-1 in their last six home games. Furthermore, the Under has hit in 10 of the Brewers’ past 16 home games against right-handed pitchers.
