It’s natural that concerns about crime rate occupy a significant place in Americans’ thoughts. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, the issue was regularly among the highest-ranked by voters. Interestingly, the recent trend of legal reform rollbacks and expanding prison numbers in numerous states marks a turn after about ten years of consistent reductions. Disappointingly, the discourse surrounding crime has evolved into a predictable, partisan debate, often failing to align with the research-based insights about effective and non-effective measures.
Both progressive and conservative minds have their strengths and weaknesses in shaping policies related to crime. As a scholar and an economist, my recommendation for both parties is to leverage empirical findings rather than being driven by their ideological standpoints. This approach can help in creating a bipartisan agenda that prioritizes public safety.
Progressives, to a large extent, are right in their critique of the ‘tough on crime’ stance that conservatives continue to uphold. The country has spent a significant amount of time and resources in attempting to mitigate crime by resorting to stricter sentencing norms. There is no denying that the strict use of prisons plays an essential role in dealing with individuals who pose a threat, thus making communities safer.
However, data demonstrates a trend wherein individuals tend to outgrow their criminal tendencies as they age. The peak age for delinquency seems to be around the late teens to early twenties, after which the propensity to engage in criminal activities dramatically decreases. This begs the question – are we spending too much on imprisoning individuals who, due to their age, are no longer a significant threat to society? From an economic perspective, it seems that this approach could be a wasteful use of resources without a substantial impact on public safety.
A resolute sentencing approach could be justified if it deterred individuals from engaging in criminal activities; if the fear of harsh punishment incentivized lawful behavior. However, research suggests that criminals are more discouraged by the chances of being caught than by the severity of the punishment they may face. It’s likely that potential offenders don’t contemplate the specifics of potential consequences, making the immediate risk of apprehension more impactful.
At present, crime detection rates across the country are disheartening, being relatively low and showing a downward trend. To break it down, the clearance rates – or the ratio of arrests made to reported offenses – is rather dismal. In 2023, this rate was a mere 41% for violent crimes, which includes offenses as serious as homicide.
For non-violent offenses, like burglary and property theft, the situation was even more concerning in the same year, with clearance rates as low as 14%. This means that a vast majority of individuals who commit these crimes are in fact never held accountable. To make our communities safer, these statistics underline how vital it is to shift our focus from harsh penalties to enhancing our crime detection capacities.