In a recent claim made by the administration, it was stated that a total of 139,000 immigrants have been deported within a span of 100 days. This announcement has drawn scrutiny from professionals in the field, given that this figure would surpass the yearly goal set by President Donald Trump to deport a total of one million people. The 100th day of his term in office marked this controversial proclamation, as outlined by his appointed border chief. Officials claimed that they were on the right path, succeeding in the deportation of 139,000 individuals since Trump’s inauguration.
The head of border operations, Tom Homan, on April 28th, stated during a press conference at the White House that ‘The numbers are good’. However, immigration specialists have cast doubts on the authenticity of these numbers. According to the regular report every two weeks by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which is mandated by Congress, the number of individuals removed is far less than the 139,000 figure, reaching approximately 57,000 individuals.
For this large disparity to make sense, there should have been extensive deportations along the nation’s borders, which fall under the jurisdiction of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Less than a week into his office tenure, Trump’s administration managed to secure the Mexican border thoroughly, leading to a significant decrease in arrests along the line, as confirmed by governmental data.
Thus, Adam Isacson, who acts as the director of defense oversight at the left-leaning Washington Office on Latin America, expressed skepticism at the presented figures, noting that unless a significant number of deportations were directed towards Canada — something there seems to be no evidence of — the numbers just don’t add up.
The experts stressed the importance of transparency, both for the government and for the public understanding and evaluating the effectiveness of the administration’s enforcement efforts. The right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies’ Jessica Vaughan, director of policy studies, emphasized that ‘the public deserves to have a very transparent accounting of the enforcement that has been happening under the Trump administration policies’.
The necessity of transparency is not only a topic of conversation but also a tool for judging policy results. Without it, any comparison of these statistics with figures from previous years would be meaningless. Public records do show increased immigration enforcement under the Trump administration. That includes an evident curbing in illegal border crossings along with an uptick in immigrant arrests and immigrant detainees.
However, the claimed figure of 139,000 deportations remains dubious. To approach such an ambitious figure would require a radical change – either in the parties responsible for conducting deportations or in the methodology of counting the deportations, as per Austin Kocher, a researcher from Syracuse University who frequently works with immigration-related data.
Kocher suggested that the administration is either employing ‘highly creative accounting scheme’ to boost the perception of deportations or it’s a straightforward case of concocting numbers out of the blue. Since Trump’s tenure began, there have been nearly 400 ICE deportation flights. Considering an average capacity of about 125 people per plane, the total number aligns with ICE reports, totaling approximately 50,000 people, not 139,000.
A Witness at the Border volunteer also emphasized the implausibility of these figures, stating that to reach this high a number, ICE must have operated twice the number of deported flights, which does not seem to be the case currently. He also speculated that perhaps the Department of Homeland Security might be including some uncertain estimates of self-deportations.
When asked to further describe what is included in the deportation figures, the answer was vague, stating that it includes removals by CBP and are derived from ‘internal data’. They stood by their numbers, expressing confidence in the figures. Historically, most deportations under past administrations have been of people who crossed the border illegally.
However, following a significant decrease in illegal border crossings and apprehensions at the US-Mexico border under Trump’s administration, raising the deportation numbers quickly has posed a challenge. Detaining individuals within the country’s interior requires more time and resources. It could require up to a half dozen ICE agents to detain a single person. Despite this, ICE arrests and detentions have increased, with other federal agents appointed by the Trump administration to help conduct immigration enforcement activities.
Moreover, CBP customs officers have been handing over more individuals to ICE for detention and deportation. In regard to providing more clarity regarding the deportation numbers, David Bier, the director of immigration studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, questioned the government’s reluctance. He said, ‘They’ve talked about being transparent about this, and so what’s the problem with providing more information than a single number without any breakdown or explanation?’
The specifics of the 139,000 deportations claim by the administration, particularly which categories of removals are included, remain undetailed. Different commentators have argued that the administration’s achievements in the realm of immigration enforcement are substantial, so there is no need to obscure the actual figures. Like many experts, they believe that removal statistics should not be buried amongst other types of enforcement data.