A significant political showdown is projected to take place in Pennsylvania, where the sentiments of the voters are likely to determine the fate of the upcoming general election on November 5. The consequences of this election are colossal, with the presidency, the destiny of both Congressional chambers and even the state Legislature hanging in the balance. Pennsylvania, with its bountiful 19 electoral votes, has emerged as a jewel among the battleground states, with both major political parties recognizing its potential as a game-changer in the race.
Pennsylvania has been frequented by both the Republican stalwart Donald Trump and his Democrat counterpart Kamala Harris after becoming their parties’ nominees. Their visits to various Pennsylvania cities like Allentown, Scranton, State College, and Harrisburg, especially during the final week of October, speak volumes about the strategic importance they accord to the state. Interestingly, the sole debate between Harris and Trump took place in Philadelphia, marking their first in-person interaction.
Trump has an interesting history with Pennsylvania. It was one of three so-called ‘blue wall’ states that swayed in favor of Trump back in 2016. This was remarkable given the state’s almost three-decade-long tradition of voting for Democratic presidential candidates. Alongside Michigan and Wisconsin, these states made a surprising shift that, even four years later, is still recalled as a notable event in political history.
However, in a twist of the political narrative, the Democratic candidate Joe Biden managed to reclaim all three swing states for the Democrats, with Pennsylvania being won by approximately 80,000 votes out of more than 6.9 million votes cast. Despite being an underwhelmed differential, this victory was significant in Democrats regaining their lost ground.
In the ongoing U.S. Senate race, Bob Casey, a Democrat with significant legacy baggage, seeks to gain a fourth term. He is challenged by Dave McCormick who, in spite of his towering stature as a former hedge fund CEO and Army combat veteran, had previously lost the GOP nomination for Pennsylvania’s other U.S. Senate seat in 2022 to Mehmet Oz. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Oz failed to capitalize on this success and eventually lost to another Democrat, John Fetterman.
The battles are not limited to the major positions either. There are several potential game-changer contests further down the ticket. For instance, in the 7th Congressional District, the Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild is in an intense re-election campaign against Republican Ryan Mackenzie. Additionally, U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright, another Democrat, seeks a seventh term against Republican Robert Bresnahan in the 8th Congressional District.
The pendulum of these districts has swung both ways. Biden just managed to scrape a win in the 7th District during the 2020 elections, while, interestingly, voters in the 8th District, which includes Biden’s childhood home of Scranton, manifested their preference for Trump. These conundrums add fascinating dimensions to Pennsylvania’s political landscape.
The Democrats are tenaciously defending the fragile majority they clinched in the state House for the first time in 12 years during the 2022 elections, despite being severely tested in a string of special elections. Significantly, all 203 state House seats along with half of the 50 State Senate seats are up for election this year, meaning the state legislators will have an decisive role to play in this election cycle.
The Republicans currently hold sway in the state Senate, embodying solid representation in the state Legislature. This places the Democrats on the defensive, as they have to secure their House majority and make some impressive gains in the Senate to offset the existing Republican dominance.
The efficiency of the vote counting process in Pennsylvania has often been under scrutiny. Legal constraints require elections officials to wait until Election Day at 7 a.m. ET before starting to process mail ballots. Mail voting results can only be announced after polling closes, extending the suspense woven around the contest. Such elements slow the pace of overall vote counting, thus delaying the declaration of results in highly contested races.
Traditionally, the first vote results expected post poll closure are from mail ballots, with gradually incoming ones being a mix of mail votes and in-person votes cast on Election Day. And in the event of prolonged vote-counting extending to the day after Election Day, the results are once again anticipitated to be majorly from mail ballots. This slow-paced counting routine may make the suspense unbearable for contestants and voters alike.
Interestingly, mail votes have usually favored Democrats ever since the dawn of early and mail voting. Thus, typical pattern has been for the initial Democrat lead to shrink as more votes are accounted for, making the race more competitive. Illustrating this, in 2020, Biden initially obtained a temporary lead following the release of the mail voting result shortly after polls closed, only for Trump to accelerate ahead as the night wore on.
In fact, by early Wednesday morning, Trump led Biden by almost 700,000 votes, a significant number that gradually dwindled as more mail ballots were counted. Despite lagging behind, Biden ultimately retook the lead by Friday morning, turning the tables on the election narrative. As such, fascinating dynamics such as this one are what make Pennsylvania such a political hotspot and one to watch in all future elections.