Despite having been fervent advocates for stringent environmental and climate laws, Democratic leaders in the Statehouse are now demonstrating a willingness to modify or even discard some of their cherished plans. This change of heart comes in the wake of a significant setback suffered in the recent elections. More members of the Democratic Party were displaced from their seats in the Vermont Legislature than in any other state, sending a powerful message that voters are deeply concerned about affordability issues within the state.
The rising cost of living in Vermont has gained a renewed focus, and not just due to the surge in property taxes caused by education expenditure. Interestingly, this fiscal strain has started to permeate the conversation around climate policies too. With the Republicans breaking the last session’s supermajority of Democrats and Progressives, and Governor Phil Scott historically against sanctioning climate related laws that impose new fees or costs on residents, Democrats are pushed to work with their opposition on any climate-related initiative in the coming session.
For quite some time, environmental organizations, advocates, and a number of lawmakers have argued that the transition to less polluting energy sources would, in fact, be more financially beneficial for the residents of Vermont, provided that such a shift is managed effectively. The high-minded Democrats, however, are now forced to admit that they probably won’t be able to progress with the clean heat standard – a contentious policy crafted with the aim of mitigating emissions stemming from heating and cooling systems in Vermont.
In 2023, the Vermont lawmakers enacted a legislation that compelled the state’s Public Utility Commission to assess this policy and anticipate the potential expense for the residents, and its functional specifics. The policy is set to be reviewed in the upcoming legislative session, but the strong opposition from the Republicans will undoubtedly render it nearly impossible to attain approval.
Originally, the clean heat standard was designed to encourage the use of less polluting heating systems. This policy mandated that distributors importing fossil fuels related to heating into Vermont offset the emissions generated by their goods. Anti-environment dealers could either supply cleaner-crafted alternatives such as biofuels, aid in upgrading homes for thermal efficiency, or install heat pumps, or simply pay a fine. These charges were supposed to facilitate the transition of Vermont residents, particularly those in the lower-income bracket, to heating systems that are less polluting.
Abandoning the clean heat standard could make it more challenging for Vermont to adhere to the 2020 Global Warming Solutions Act, a cornerstone of the state’s approach to combating climate change. The law sets definite targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, 2030, and 2050, and even features a clause that allows the state to face legal action if they fail to implement strategies to achieve these goals.
Governor Phil Scott has indicated intentions to propose alterations to the Global Warming Solutions Act – a law he previously vetoed – in the coming legislative session. In line with this, Republicans from the House and Senate recently publicized their plan to introduce a bill featuring their own set of changes.
While some of Vermont’s largest environmental organizations gear up for a stern resistance against changes to the climate law, the overall majority is still held by Democrats and Progressives. This implies that the changes proposed by Republicans may not materialize. However, if the law remains untouched, and unchanged, Vermont could soon find itself at a substantial risk of litigation.
Despite the contrasting opinions among experts about the state’s chances of meeting the 2025 emission reduction deadline, the consensus is that Vermont is drastically behind schedule to achieve its emission reduction target for 2030. According to the law, by 2030, Vermont needs to cut emissions down to 40% below 1990 emission levels.
In 1990, Vermont was responsible for releasing 8.56 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, a measure used to quantify greenhouse gas pollution. The most recent data, from 2021, shows that Vermont emitted approximately 8.28 million metric tons of pollutants. To hit the 2030 reduction targets, the state would need to limit emissions to 5.14 million metric tons.
Environmentalists and policymakers alike agree that Vermont has not enacted any sectorial climate policies that could put the state on a trajectory to meet the 2030 deadline. With the deadline looming closer, any policy introduced at this point would need to be aggressive in its nature and promptly capable of slashing emissions by approximately 3 million metric tons within a span of just a few years.
Despite this urgency, state officials like Natural Resources Secretary Julie Moore, have expressed skepticism over the feasibility of a policy that could effectively reach the goal and still be cost-effective for Vermonters. It seems that the Democrats’ failed environmental policies have led Vermont into a precarious situation, with untenable obligations and potential lawsuits looming on the horizon.
In short, the Democratic leaders seem to have led Vermont down a path of economic struggle and environmental policy failure. Their policies and approaches have only brought about a state of uncertainty and left Vermonters overburdened with unrealistic costs and unachievable emission targets. Meanwhile, Republicans remain committed to rational policies that consider Vermont’s fiscal realities and address the urgent needs of its citizens, while taking a sensible approach to environmental issues.