Nevada’s legislature has made it possible to tally mail-in ballots up to four days post-Election Day, causing concern that election results could arrive later than expected, if similar to the 2020 election. Recalling the past, Joe Biden had to wait four whole days to be declared the winner of Nevada’s electoral votes. Could we anticipate a repeat scenario? Yes, potentially.
The local legislation permits every mail ballot that was postmarked by Election Day to be authenticated until 5 p.m. on the ensuing Saturday. Conversely, mail ballots with an ambiguous or absent postmark are to be validated latest by 5 p.m. on Friday. Despite numerous suits by Republicans, both local and national, these statutes were nevertheless upheld in this year.
Consequently, when the margins of victory are slim, like they were in 2020, analysts and pundits might remain uncomfortable predicting the outcome for several days post-Election Day. This discomfort stems from the likely presence of unaccounted mail-in ballots. During the pivotal midterms of 2022, Clark County recorded around 6 percent of ballots and Washoe County approximately 3 percent, being received post-Election Day.
Most of these mail-in votes were logged in the day following Election Day, but the subsequent days saw a sharp decline. However, changes to the counting rules for this year’s election, coupled with its unique circumstances, could potentially yield a clearer idea of the state of the race on the day of the election itself. The Secretary of State’s office in Nevada introduced new guidelines prior to the June primaries this year.
The new policy emboldens county election officials to initiate counting of in-person early votes from 8 a.m. on Election Day. By the deadline of 6 p.m. on Election Day, every county must submit its first set of results for verification and quality checks. Those who have access to vote counts preceding the closing of all polling stations are expected to sign a non-disclosure form, or they risk facing felony charges through violation.
Although the state law mirrors the one from 2020 in this aspect, the absence of explicit instructions on counting ballots early on Election Day likely led county election officials to delay early vote counts until later in the day that year. Additionally, county officials have had the green light to begin counting mail-in ballots from Oct. 21, a full fifteen days leading up to Election Day– a carry-over from 2020.
If all goes to plan, this implies the first set of results posted online on the day of the election should encompass all early in-person votes and mail-in ballots received before Election Day. During the current year’s elections, this number could be substantial as over a million early and mail-in votes had been counted as of Sunday.
Despite previous false allegations of fraud associated with these two voting methods, Republicans have advised their supporters to engage in early and mail voting. Leading the Democrats by over 40,000 votes cast, as recorded on Sunday, the Republican voters seem to have adhered to the advice. Likely due to prior voting, fewer of them are expected to turn up for in-person voting on Election Day compared to the turnout four years ago.
Adding to the concern, Nevada’s laws mandate that no results can be released until every last in-person ballot on Election Day has been cast. While the polling stations are scheduled to close at 7 p.m. local time, those still queued by the deadline are allowed to cast their votes. To illustrate, the primary voting in June officially closed at 7:54 p.m., and the first results were revealed 10 minutes later. However, higher turnout is expected during the November elections, likely resulting in longer lines and extended polling schedules.
Yet, observers must practice caution when studying the initial numbers due to the unknowable quantity of outstanding mail-in ballots. It seems like another glaring oversight from an administration that regularly struggles with managing simple procedures. Where other states have efficiently adopted mail-in voting processes, Nevada’s system leaves room for ambiguity and insecurity.
Themes from the past, such as the four-day wait in the Biden election, may be set to replay in Nevada. On top of this concerns about the transparency and integrity of the process persist. Nevada’s ambiguous rules on when and how votes are counted offers opportunities for controversy and confusion as many will wonder why the simple task of counting votes takes days instead of hours.
Attempting to reshuffle the voting methods could result in a self-inflicted muddle for the Democrats in Nevada. The new structures and timeline adjustments may be less than beneficial for clarity, and could invite a plethora of questions about the efficacy and transparency of the election process itself.
Unfortunately, while administrative confusion could lead to post-election complications, the more unsettling aspect is the potential for delayed election results. A four-day margin does not sound encouraging, when states across the nation are swiftly collecting, tallying, and confirming votes within a short timeline post-Election Day.
Ultimately, while the Democrats seem intent on implementing changes, it’s unclear whether the modifications will lead to a smoother, more efficient electoral process, or further mire Nevada’s reputation as a ‘late-reporting’ state. Only time will reveal the full implications and potential fallout from these alterations.