Renowned polling expert, Frank Luntz, noted on a recent Thursday that within the current election landscape, former President Donald Trump appears to carry substantial momentum. This discussion was sparked partly by the media’s focus on Vice President Harris’ responses to some of President Joe Biden’s controversial remarks.
The host posed a thought-provoking question, querying why this particular circumstance has the potential of becoming the defining issue of the election. In response, Luntz expressed deep reminiscence of the 2016 election and the parallels between it and the current situation, a comparison that brought an intriguing depth to the conversation.
Going back in time, Luntz recalled the distinct societal divisions that famously characterized the 2016 election atmosphere. He also reiterated the popular consensus back-then, that the chances of Trump clinching the presidency were thin and fairly dismissible, an assumption that was eventually proven wrong.
Reemphasizing the might of the underdog story, Luntz expressed that Trump, much to the surprise of many, is gathering steam at an impressive pace in this current election cycle. However, despite detecting this apparent trend, he prudently held back from predicting a clear victor.
He underscored that the markings on the electoral map were not clear enough to confidently determine the winner. Considering the tenuous statistical data, the near tie in numerous polling results, and the varied, often contradictory findings of different focus groups, making a prediction did not seem within the realm of certainty.
His assessment, though, was that it’s clear that the momentum leans more towards Trump. This claim stood as a provocative counter-narrative to the current media reports, throwing an intriguing wrench into the political discourse.
Luntz placed great importance on the power of words and actions in this high-stakes political chess game. According to him, the slightest stumble, a misplaced comment, or even a seemingly minor slip could potentially hold significant sway over the small segment of voters who remain unsure of which box to check.
He further put forth that the undecided voters – those stuck between rock and a hard place – have become an extinct breed in recent times. He ventured that the real question at this stage isn’t about picking a side per se, but rather whether one would actually step up and cast a vote when faced with candidates they don’t necessarily endorse.
Luntz depicted this dynamic group of voters as forming the largest cohort of what he defined as the ‘persuadable’. They are the ones harboring their doubts, straddling the line of indecision, unsure of where to place their faith.
He further elaborated that these are the individuals who remain undecided because they find Trump’s character and his bombastic persona hard to swallow. They’ve seen his style over the years but remain skeptical of whether it’s what they want in their leader.
On the other side of the same coin, these persuadable voters are also uncertain about what the vice presidency under Harris might look like. This uncertainty extends to her first day, week, month, and even the first year of her potential tenure.
It’s evident that this group of voters could be key in swinging the decision one way or the other. Both candidates, remain under close scrutiny as these voters reserve their judgment, waiting for a defining moment that could sway their decision.
In this unpredictable and highly momentous election cycle, Luntz reminds us all of the palpable tension in the air, the sense of frantic anticipation that accompanies any close race, and the unmistakable feeling that every word, every action, and every decision could be the one that ultimately reshapes the path of the nation.
Watch his remarks below
FRANK LUNTZ: “It reminds me so much of 2016, and I think there are a lot of similarities… The momentum, in what I see, in what I hear, is in his favor.” pic.twitter.com/2Isxuxlvu9
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 31, 2024