President Biden’s run of difficulties appears to be escalating. A recent poll by USA TODAY and Suffolk University revealed that if a hypothetical contest were held today, ex-President Donald Trump would pip Biden at the post, taking a 40% to 38% lead, an indicator of a tense voting atmosphere as campaign actions begin to roll into gear.
However, the race is far from over even though it’s eight months away. A significant portion of the respondents, one in four, conveyed that they might switch their allegiances before November arrives. This trend of political uncertainty isn’t exclusive to any one party, with both sides seeing a potential 14-15% shift in voter preferences.
In an interesting trend, the data showed that those who are currently supporting third-party candidates might still be willing to change their positions. Of those, 75% of supporters of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a massive 94% of Jill Stein backers express openness to reconsidering their choice. This tendency for independent candidates to lose support as Election Day draws near suggests a fantastic opportunity for major party candidates to win over undecided voters.
Voter sentiment mainly focused on key issues like inflation and the economy, taking precedence at 29%. Concerns about immigration issues and challenges to democracy followed closely, accounting for 24% and 23%, respectively. Of the list of concerns, the only other reaching double-digit interest was the abortion debate, at 10%, as per the poll’s findings.
An additional survey outlines a more problematic scenario for Biden, showing him lagging more when it comes to matters voters care about the most this year. Trust in Biden falls short when compared to Trump according to a recent ABC/Ipsos poll conducted between March 8 and 9. 36% of those polled placed their trust in Trump versus a mere 33% who put their trust in Biden, while a significant 30% placed trust in neither.
When comparing job performance on various issues, Trump outperformed Biden in all areas with the exception of abortion and climate change. The ex-President earned favorable impressions from 49% of respondents on handling the economy, a stark contrast to Biden’s 37%. Trump continued this trend with a 45% approval rating in managing inflation compared to Biden’s 31%.
Regarding crime, more respondents held a favorable view of Trump (41%) over Biden (35%). When it came to immigration, Trump also won more support with an approval rating of 45%, leaving Biden trailing at 29%. These numbers highlight the disparity in approval ratings between the two figures.
Post—State of the Union polling contradicts the image painted by Democrats and most mainstream media channels, who praised Biden’s performance. Aaron Blake, a columnist for the Washington Post, presents a different perspective stating, ‘The American public isn’t necessarily seeing the home run that the Democrats did.’ He suggests that instant post-speech polling from CNN and a few other media outlets did not paint as glowing a picture as it usually would.
National headlines have been made by a CNN post-speech instantaneous poll claiming that 65% of viewers gave Biden’s speech a positive evaluation. Also, an apparent shift occurred post-speech in the audience’s perception of the country’s direction, with 62% now optimistic after the speech, a rise from 45% prior. However, Aaron Blake points out that these post-speech reactions are generally expected to be positive.
Historically, the 65% positive evaluation for Biden’s speech pales when stacked against other State of the Union addresses. In fact, it ranks as the lowest in the last 25 years, surpassing only President Trump’s 2018 address which had a 70% positive rating. The trend continues with just 35% of viewers giving a ‘very’ positive review, tying for historic lows.
Low positive ratings also followed Bush in 2007 and Biden in 2022, with both earning ‘very’ positive reviews from only 41% of viewers. History also fails to impress when looking at the 17-point shift towards optimism about the country’s direction; by comparison, since President Bill Clinton’s 1998 address, viewers have typically shifted by around 15 points after the State of the Union.
Blake offers an explanatory caveat for these numbers, suggesting that viewers for this State of the Union were less aligned with the President than usual for such an address. This could be due to the current campaign year, or because people were curious about whether Biden could deliver, given increasing skepticism.
