The 2024 election cycle was peculiar in the American political history with a lackluster primary season concluding abruptly by the end of the first month. A former president was under trial in a New York courtroom, yet the political scene remained remarkably bland for half a year.
The unexpected assassination attempt on Donald Trump ignited a political tumult, marking the downfall of Joe Biden’s hopes for re-election. Kamala Harris, caught off guard, was thrust into a frantic three-month effort to halt the swift resurgence of Donald Trump. Despite her efforts, she proved unable to stop his return.
With the dawn of 2025, Trump comfortably assumed his second term in office following an uncontested victory supported by majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Equipped for a potentially radical reign in the next four years, it was Trump’s season of triumph again.
Trump’s win in the election, encapsulated by the 312 Electoral College votes as opposed to Kamala Harris’ paltry 226, attested to his irrefutable dominance. The delegates to the Electoral College convened in their respective state Capitols on December 17, to formally cast their ballots, thereby finalizing this outcome.
There was no room for dispute, no so-called ‘faithless electors’, no challenges, no allegations of fraud, or vote manipulation. All went as anticipated, a straightforward, unquestioned vote. However, Trump’s victory was far from being tagged as a landslide one.
Truly, a landslide victory was Ronald Reagan’s triumph in 1984 where he claimed 525 Electoral College votes, the last actual landslide victory in a US presidential election. The 312 Electoral College votes that Trump secured were pretty standard for a victory. His victory margin was not extraordinary by any measure, quite unimpressive, really.
With only a 1.5 percentage point edge, Trump’s win was far from spectacular, marking the fifth smallest margin of victory of the 32 presidential races since 1900. As all votes were counted, the winning margin shrank drastically from the initial 3.12% on election night, to 1:48% upon final reckoning.
Though Trump made extensive claims about his victory margin, it was far from large in the contest that has tightened over the years. The popular vote, which Trump grabbed with joy despite the well-known fact that Republicans generally lag with registered voters, was indeed an accomplishment.
However, the race was closer than it appeared. Kamala Harris secured just over 75 million votes, lagging behind Trump by a mere 2.3 million votes. Yet, the US system allows for a candidate to assume presidency even without a majority popular vote.
Considering an alternate scenario where just 229,726 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had favored Harris instead, she would have emerged victorious, achieving the minimum required 270 Electoral College votes. This possibility highlights the demanding nature of the elections and voter dynamics.
In that case, Trump would have ended up with 268 Electoral College votes, reflecting a loss. The early phase of Trump’s second term could easily devolve into disorder, with his inability to execute substantial moves potentially tarnishing his legacy almost instantly.
Interestingly, a similar situation could have unfolded in 2020 where with a shift of 65,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin would have granted Trump a victory over Biden. The election saw the Congress, especially the House of Representatives, reducing the Republican majority to a slim five-seat lead—a century record.
With the withdrawal of Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, the lead was further reduced to four. The cabinet nominations of Mike Waltz and Elise Stefanik skimmed the margin to a precarious two seats, at least until the by-elections. The slim margin posed a real challenge, especially when attempting to drive through contentious legislation.
The precariousness extended into Trump’s second term, threatening to descend into chaos, impeding progress, and inflicting damage to his legacy in the early stages. The chronic issues tied to the US federal budget, its substantial deficit, and amassed debt remain a contentious issue.
The Republicans, focused on reducing the deficit by slashing spending to manage the debt sustainably, seemed at odds with party agreements. The mandate for Trump remained unchanged—implement changes regardless of their popularity. The subsequent mid-term election being less than two years away injected added urgency to Trump’s agenda.
In conclusion, it’s a critical time for Donald Trump. Most of his promised changes need to be implemented now or risk being forever deferred.