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Biden’s Fading Influence: Independent Voters Defy Democratic Expectations

The increasing count of American voters unattached to any particular political party has kept pollsters, media, and campaign strategists on their toes, particularly concerning the 2024 presidential election. This growing tribe of independent voters has become an influential bloc in the U.S. political setting. In 2023, 43% of American voters took on the label of being ‘independent,’ manifesting a sustained trend since 1991, excluding the brief intermission between 2004 and 2008, when their numbers were surpassed by supporters of both major parties.

As of June 2024, independent voters had ballooned to an impressive 51% of U.S. adults, outnumbering the collective following of the two primary parties. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump secured the popular vote, an achievement seen by only one other Republican since 1988, though his vote share did not cross the 50% threshold. An interesting trend emerging from the post-election voter analysis was the growing influence of independent voters who not only increased their voting share but also divided their votes, in effect broadening their overall political influence.

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Data analysis pointed to a smaller voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election compared to 2020, with the total number of votes cast being lesser by 4.3 million. However, the count of independent voters voting in 2024 increased by 11 million. The number of Republicans turning out to vote shrunk by 3.5 million and the Democrats saw a more sizable reduction of 11.2 million voters.

What this data signifies is of great importance: Independent voters made up 34% of the total in 2024, exceeding Democrats by 3% and almost matching Republicans, who accounted for 35% of voters. This was a significant increase from 2020, when independents accounted for only 26% of all votes cast. It should be mentioned that these figures are reliant on the voters’ self-reported political identification, which is not an entirely reliable measure as it can differ from official party affiliation records and past voting trends.

On the demographic front, independents tend to be younger and predominantly male compared to their partisan counterparts. In 2024, 44% of independents were under the age of 45, whereas only 37% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans fell into that age group. In terms of gender, independent voters had a slightly higher percentage of white men (38%) than white women (34%), mirroring the gender distribution amongst Republican voters.

Interestingly, a larger portion of independent men held college degrees – 47%, compared to the 43% who reported party affiliations. Independent women with college degrees accounted for 43%, similar to the count of college-educated women affiliated to the main parties (41%).

It appears that the ‘independent’ allure didn’t extend to Harris or Biden, as the voting trends reflected a 49% lean towards Harris and a 46% towards Trump, with the remainder 5% choosing another presidential candidate. However, independent voters in battleground states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia had a different preference, siding with Trump instead.

Nevada saw an evenly split independent vote, while Harris won the favor of independent voters in Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit by slim margins of 4 and 1 percentage points respectively. What fuelled the voting decisions of these independents? While several factors were at play, a major predictor was the political stance of the voters.

Independents typically identify as political moderates, with varying viewpoints influencing their presidential choice. When asked about their primary concern in choosing a candidate, democracy emerged as the top pick for 41% of them, followed by the economy for 31%. Abortion, although a hotly debated topic, was the primary issue for just 11% of independent voters, even though nearly 69% of independents believe that it should be legal.

The sentiment among independents reflected widespread dissatisfaction or outright anger about the country’s current state, with 77% of independent voters expressing these feelings. These voters tended to trust one candidate more on matters like crime, safety, and immigration, while they leaned towards the other for abortion rights. However, they were evenly split on who they trusted more with the economy.

Independents also showed a higher tendency to vote split tickets for the presidential and Senate races compared to Democrats or Republicans. Self-identified independents were nearly twice as likely to split their tickets, with 9.7% of them doing so nationwide. A smaller portion (2.9%) chose not to vote for a Senate candidate at all.

Research indicates that independents are ‘swing voters’ whose political allegiances tend to shift between elections. Historically, they favored Obama in 2008 by 8 percentage points and Trump in 2016 by 4 percentage points. By 2020, independents showed support for Biden with a lead of 13 percentage points, only for the tide to turn against the Democratic candidate Harris in 2024, who had a narrow lead of just 3 percentage points.

This seesaw pattern is further evidenced in research examining voter identification and choices. The independent voter segment swung back and forth, favoring Democrats and Republicans in alternating elections. These independents, with their swinging loyalties, have certainly become a force to reckon with in American politics.

As independents step up in numbers and significance, their distinguishing traits start to emerge. They tend to be more socially liberal and fiscally conscientious than their partisan contemporaries. They also exhibit a higher likelihood of voting split tickets compared to the two major parties’ supporters and show an intriguing tendency to reject the incumbent.

Included in the rising tide of independents are the younger Americans – over half of Gen Z voters identified as independents. This changing electorate landscape, dominated by a swelling cohort of independent voters, questions the long-standing two-party system and the tenets that have formed the bedrock of American politics.