Throughout the year, Biden was consistently lagging behind Trump in national polls, reflecting a noteworthy political weakness. Moreover, the divergence expanded post the June presidential debate, marking a further slump in his campaign. National polling numbers highlighted a decrease of three points for Biden, with a deeper decline of four or more points in pivotal battlegrounds such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Post-debate, the deterioration in Biden’s standing became evident in three critical states that were indispensable for his re-election—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Simultaneously, his position suffered in other fluctuating territories where he was already four to five points behind, another apparent setback for his campaign.
The presidential race between Biden and Trump was defined by their reliance on certain states; however, to reach the magical figure of 270 electoral votes, both needed to extend their territories. However, as it was, the battle centred hollowly around nine particularly disputed states where the voting results of 2020 or the current opinion poles were close-knit.
Had there been an unexpected shift in polls in Biden’s favor or if the polls had overlooked his popularity, it might have created a narrow path of success for him. Nevertheless, this occurrence was anything but guaranteed and rather seemed a flimsy expectation for the debilitating campaign.
Could the polls possibly be mistaken, or might they have diminished the backing for Biden? Such a prospect was indeed plausible. However, his falling margins were approaching the threshold of the most significant polling inaccuracies witnessed in modern electoral history.
Presuming there were no significant dynamics shifting the public opinion pre-Election Day, Biden would have required a minimum misjudgment of five points in his favor in the margins of the key states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Yet again, this seemed a high order considering his faltering positioning.
For nearly unbroken ten months and right up till his withdrawal from the race, Biden never managed to overtake Trump in polls. This prolonged persistence of an unfavorable position in the rankings exposed a persistent weakness in his candidacy, overshadowing any chance of building a perceivable momentum.
Presenting further complications for Biden, the presence of third-party candidates posed serious challenges for the polling and undeniably played a considerable part in the election process. These candidates have the potential to draw away votes and support, making Biden’s position even more precarious, thereby confirming the rough ride he experienced during his campaign.