In the most recent election cycle, Democrats aimed to take control of the battleground state, North Carolina, yet found themselves falling short in their pursuits against the resilient Republicans. In spite of their relentless efforts, the Democrats were unable to sway North Carolina into their favor in the presidential elections, marking a notable failure yet again.
While Donald Trump triumphed over Vice President Kamala Harris with a substantial 3% lead, the Democrats used their downballot wins to save face. They successfully clinched victories in governorship, attorney general office, and the state legislature within this polarized state. Such results prompt questions about the political character of North Carolina electorate, who seemingly favor Republicans for presidential office but are inclined towards Democrats for local service.
The silver linings for the Democrats amidst a generally gloomy electoral landscape appeared to be primarily anchored within state boundaries. The victories presented a brief glimpse of relief to the Democrats as North Carolina citizens showcased their ticket-splitting ability. An interesting trend that seems to favor local Democratic representation while leaning Republican in national elections.
Across several gubernatorial elections held in North Carolina, Democrats have come out victorious in eight out of the nine most recent elections. However, when it comes to presidential elections, North Carolina’s loyalty lies solidly with the Republicans, with eleven out of the past twelve elections favoring them. The only exception in recent history was when Barack Obama won in 2008.
While the Republicans solidified their dominance in the presidential elections, they experienced a blow in the state-level elections -with the Democrats flipping both the lieutenant governor’s office and the state school superintendent’s role. The State Democratic Party Chair, Anderson Clayton, at a mere 26 years of age, had to adapt to these contrasting winds -upbeat local victories versus the stinging national level defeat.
Nevertheless, Republicans in the state can anticipate their performance in the 2024 elections with renewed optimism, given Trump’s unfaltering three-time electoral victory and the addition of three more congressional seats to their tally. Despite the controversial win of Don Davis, the Democratic Representative, during the first term, Republicans managed to hold a veto-proof majority in the State Senate. The state House majority, however, hangs in the balance by a single seat.
The tradition of ticket-splitting in North Carolina has roots going back decades. Voters seem to gravitate towards Democrats in managing their state agencies, yet hold reservations about aligning with the liberal-leaning national Democratic Party. This trend has led to an unusual dynamic giving Democrats control over state-level positions, whilst maintaining Republican power on a national level.
In the face of this unique electoral split, state Republican leaders have shown unwavering confidence in their party’s performance. They have kept their spirits high, pointing out the retention of five out of ten executive branch positions statewide, continued control over the General Assembly, and recent supremacy in statewide appellate court races. Yet, there is still a looming state Supreme Court race likely to require a recount.
The 2024 electoral cycle has been perceived by critics as fraught with squandered opportunities for the GOP. The widely anticipated competitive gubernatorial race failed to materialize as Stein, the Democratic candidate won by an unanticipated 15 percentage points margin. Despite initial hope, Robinson’s candidacy was completely overshadowed by Stein’s campaign, which benefited from a 4-to-1 spending advantage.
Stein’s strategic financial advantage, however, was met with linked allegations against Robinson of authoring inappropriate messages, further tarnishing the Republican side. While Robinson vehemently denied these allegations, with a case still pending, most Republicans were seen to distance themselves from the controversy. Stein was confident enough to redirect $12 million in campaign funds to help other state Democratic Party candidates.
Looking ahead, GOP’s U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat will be up for re-election in 2026, representing the next major electoral challenge. Though Robinson’s bid was unsuccessful this time around, he has not completely ruled out putting his hat in the ring for future contests, including possibly challenging Tillis in a primary.
Likewise, on the Democrats’ side, outgoing U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel, clearly unfazed by the Democrats’ national-level loss, hinted at potentially making a bid for election in the future. If successful, they could break the dry spell for Democrats who haven’t secured a U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina since 2008.
Despite the mixed outcomes of this election, Democrats are hopeful about their future prospects, viewing the minor victories as building blocks for more significant gains to follow. While acknowledging the uphill struggle projected for 2026 and 2028, they are resolved to improve their electoral performance.
Anderson Clayton, as the Democrat chair, advocates for a proactive approach. He believes it is time for diligent efforts to strengthen the party’s position, with plans already in motion for recruiting robust candidates. The focus will also be on providing ample support to the incumbent officials and widespread groundwork across the state to prepare for future electoral battles.