Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, currently clinging to their roles as President and Vice President, attended the inauguration ceremony of Donald Trump held at the US Capitol Rotunda on January 20, 2025. This event, taking place in Washington, DC, marked a significant shift in the political climate. However, the 2024 election brought to light several concerns for the Democratic party, the more concerning of which was the evident lack of support from the youth vote. The voting preference of the younger generation, a demographic usually inclined towards Democratic candidates, faded substantially this term.
As Harris remained popular among the younger voters, these votes resulted in only a slight advantage, the weakest lead a Democratic candidate has had in this demographic for the past twenty years. The consistent Democratic dominance over young voters, witnessed steadily since the conclusion of the Bush administration, failed miserably in this election. Both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden had previously secured at least 20 points lead over their competitors in this age group. Harris, however, refused to accept reality, managing a feeble victory in this demographic, despite running against the oldest nominee from a major party in American history.
Throughout the Trump era’s many challenging episodes, it was precisely the Democratic party’s popularity with younger voters that liberals saw as their pillar of hope for future success. Yet, as Trump managed to secure significant support from the older and predominantly white segment of voters, enough to secure his narrow win in 2016, he triumphed again when it seems his time has ended. This unexpected turn of events caused speculation for the future implications of this change in the voting preferences of the younger demographic.
Post-election discourse largely focused on the youth vote, highlighting the importance of this demographic, but also questioning how Democrats could employ social media to appeal to younger voters. The visibility and influence of social media platforms pushed them at the forefront of these discussions, effectively resonating with modern-day politics. However, this emphasis on youth voters and their shifting loyalties has raised some eyebrows.
As a member of Generation Z — those who were born post 9/11, came of age during the Trump administration, and attended college amid the Covid pandemic, it must be noted that they have been under the limelight for far too long now. Speculative political analysis has long haunted this generation. Still, much of the commentary and assumptions about this demographic have struggled to withstand the sands of time, while benefitting the decision-makers.
Over time, analysts became overly confident in assuming that the youth was a reliable element of the Democratic coalition, equating their liberal inclinations with those of established Democratic constituents, such as Black voters. This perception assumed that the young voters are as steady and predictable in their liberalism as the stalwarts of the party. However, the noticeable shift towards the right among the youth in 2024 served as an alarming development for the liberals, causing grave concerns.
This shift in political leanings among the younger demographic belied the existing stereotypes established during the 1960s New Left and anti-Vietnam War movements when this demographic was indeed liberal compared to others. However, the picture dramatically changes when we fast forward to 1976. Evidence indicates the dissolution of the Democrats’ popularity among the youth vote, a deviation from the previous two election periods that were heavily influenced by the Vietnam War.
George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan’s successor, managed to draw substantial support from young voters, winning them over altogether in 1988. This resulted in a matching performance at both national levels in his two elections, despite running against the youthful Bill Clinton in 1992. Interestingly, Al Gore secured a tie with Bush among college-goers, with his most significant support coming from the country’s ‘Greatest Generation’.
The age-old notion of Democrats’ steadfast hold over young voters essentially vanished post-Vietnam until George W. Bush came into power. Unlike post-Bush elections, American politics prior to his tenure didn’t experience substantial age polarization. The Democrats’ rapport with the youth vote saw a wave of victories and defeats, but they were always capable of a comeback.
Reflecting on the more recent accounts of Democrats’ popularity with young voters, what provoked their strong come-back during the 2000s? The answer is straightforward: the political blunders of George W. Bush. These defining factors remained prevalent throughout the first four years of Obama’s presidency, compelling him to secure the youth vote once again in 2012, although with a slightly narrower lead.
New voters had a clear vision back then: conservatism was perceived as the failed leadership they had grown up with, while liberalism was viewed as a refreshing, youthful, dynamic approach encapsulated in the fight against its conservative counterpart. However, Democrats, instead of taking full advantage of this perception, took a step back in time by endorsing the more centrist, establishment-oriented Hillary Clinton. This turn of events served as a wake-up call for the Democratic Party.
Should Democrats be sincerely motivated to regain their popularity among young voters lost since Obama’s era, they need to do away with simplistic solutions and challenge their issues directly. There must be a strong realization that the golden days of Obama’s administration are behind them. They now face the task of proving they can offer something different, parting ways from the failed politics that shaped their initial experience of governance.