The UFC Fight Night 250 is slated to be an exciting spectacle that will feature a significant 3-round heavyweight duel pitting Sergei Pavlovich against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This central event, also referred to as UFC Saudi Arabia and UFC on ESPN+ 108, is set to take place at the ANB Arena in Riyadh. This headlining act has a lot riding on it, particularly for Pavlovich who owns a record of (18-3-0), and Rozenstruik exhibiting a (15-5-0) scorecard.
Pavlovich, notable for his southpaw boxing style, will be making strides to halt his recent 2-match losing streak. The first of these losses took place at UFC 295 against Tom Aspinall, where Pavlovich succumbed to a knock out in the inaugural round of a championship duel that took place in November 2023. A consecutive loss was sustained in the face of Alexander Volkov in June, concluded as a unanimous decision by the jury.
Prior to this pairing of losses, the fighting prowess of Pavlovich was significantly impressive, managing to clinch 6 incessant victories in the first rounds via knockouts. It’s noteworthy that of his first 8 UFC bouts, they all reached their conclusions in the opening round by way of knockouts or technical knockouts, painting a picture of Pavolovich’s aggressive boxing style and record of (6-2) in these fights.
On the flip side, Rozenstruik made quite the entrance into the UFC scene, marking 4 consecutive victories via knockout or technical knockouts, all within the spans of February to December in 2019. This was a prosperous year for the fighter, giving him momentum going forward in his career.
Nonetheless, a staggering loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 249 in May 2020 seemed to cause a stumble in Rozenstruik’s trajectory. Ever since, in the subsequent matches, his record has been somewhat checkered, with a (5-4) performance post this abrupt downturn.
The Surinamese combatant, nicknamed ‘Bigi Boy’, has shown signs of recovery, particularly with his two recent victories. The first victory over Shamil Gaziev was achieved in March, and the most recent being against Tai Tuivasa. This indicates an upward trend for Rozenstruik, possibly signaling the end of his unfortunate slump.
His triumph over Gaziev was a pivotal fourth-round win, beautifully wrapped up by a technical knockout in the main event of a fight night. His victory over Tuivasa at UFC 305, however, was a closely contested split-decision win, further stoking his chances of regaining his past glory on the UFC stage.
One factor of note in the upcoming clash between Pavlovich and Rozenstruik is the significant reach advantage Pavolvich possesses. This 6-inch advantage would provide Pavlovich a stronger position to control the fight’s progression. In addition, Pavlovich’s record of landing 5.86 significant strikes per minute edges out Rozenstruik’s 3.75.
Interestingly, in terms of accuracy, Rozenstruik showcases greater precision with his striking rate of 53.06% compared to Pavlovich’s 44.92%. This sharpness, despite a lower strike rate, might prove crucial in the fight. However, neither fighter is notably superior when it comes to grappling or submissions, positioning the bout to be primarily a striking duel.
The odds for the upcoming fight paint an interesting picture. For betting purposes, Pavlovich is the prohibitive favorite with a -300 line, meaning if you bet $300, your potential return would be $100. The underdog position is held by Rozenstruik, at +240, which translates to a $240 win on a $100 bet.
However, despite being a favorite, putting a straight bet on Pavlovich may seem too risky due to his high cost, which is three times the potential payout. Given the wavering performance of Rozenstruik, who displays a .500 record in his last ten fights, it can be a challenge to place high certainty in either competitor.
The vital aspect to consider here is Pavlovich’s extraordinary reach advantage. He carries a 6-inch edge that will allow him to manage the fight’s tempo and distance, ultimately controlling the fight. The opportunity to strategize and pounce with a powerful strike when the moment suits him could be a determining factor in the clash.
One possible bet could be wagering on Pavlovich emerging victorious via knockout, technical knockout, or disqualification. With a -275 line on the 7-way line, it’s still quite a steep wager. To soften the hard hit of this kind of betting, it might be best to combine it with one or two other fights via a parlay.
Additionally, backing Pavlovich to dominate in the first round with -120 could also be suggested. In 8 out of his 9 UFC bouts, irrespective of being a win or loss, Pavlovich didn’t move to the second round. The general tendency for short fights could perhaps make this a safer bet.
Betting that the fight will be under 1.5 rounds comes with a -210 line, which would cost over double the potential return. Although this might appear slightly pricey, it could pay off when combined with other wagers into a parlay.
Lastly, the ‘No: Will the fight go the distance?’ bet, stands highly risky with a -650 line as the stake is a massive 6.5 times the potential payout. Consequently, such a bet seems unpromising and might be safer to skip.