Lebanon’s January 2025 elections saw a promising turn towards autonomy and improved stability with the election of Joseph Aoun as the nation’s president, following the decline of Hezbollah’s power after its conflict with Israel. The results pose significant governance challenges for Aoun, which include the disarmament of Hezbollah, developing resilient institutions, and driving economic reforms.
Joseph Aoun’s election as the president of the Lebanese Republic represents a significant progress for the country, which has been plagued by instability and a lack of sovereignty. Aoun succeeds Michel Aoun—no connection in kin—who ceased his term in office by October 2022.
Hezbollah and its allies fell short of securing the position for their preferred candidate in the elections, despite possessing enough votes to impede the parliament, which was already equally divided, from electing an alternate candidate. This led the crisis-ridden and financially depleted country into a prolonged period of political deadlock.
Amidst this turmoil, Lebanon’s already feeble governance institutions fell into disuse. However, a significant shift was heralded by Hezbollah’s ill-advised decision to join the Iranian-backed, Hamas-ignited war on Israel in October 2023. The Israeli military’s devastating attack on Hezbollah and Iran drastically altered the power dynamic within Lebanon and the surrounding region.
The election of a president free from Iranian influence and not tied to Hezbollah marks a tangible step towards this alteration. Aoun’s discussions around creating a ‘positive neutrality’ recall the foundational principles of the Lebanese state, which sought to prevent regional power struggles from destabilizing Lebanon, albeit largely unsuccessfully.
Joseph Aoun, an individual of high respect and proven leadership skills from his tenure as the head of the Lebanese Army and the country’s partner for America, faces the reality of a presidency with constraints. These limitations are evidence of the shift of power away from the Maronite presidency following the civil war towards a Sunni prime minister, the multi-confessional cabinet of ministers, and the Shia-dominated parliament.
The appointment of a president is just the beginning of a negotiation process. The subsequent steps involve appointing a prime minister and a cabinet capable of securing the confidence of the parliament, a decision heavily influenced by their proposed policies and principles.
With the current decline of Hezbollah and Iran—though not entirely defeated—the forces within Lebanon opposing Iranian and Syrian control have a unique opportunity to unite and leverage the changing power dynamic. The recent peace agreement with Israel obliges Lebanon to exert such determination.
In the long term, the most critical task standing before Lebanon is the disarmament of Hezbollah throughout the country, a process that must be executed without triggering sectarian discord or confrontation. Hezbollah’s use of Iranian and Syrian support to maintain its armed forces and control large portions of Lebanon has to be addressed emphatically.
Lebanon cannot truly enjoy autonomy, stability, or peace as long as Hezbollah retains its weapons, essentially functioning as a separate entity within the state. However, there are emerging indications that Lebanon’s government is gradually regaining its authority as Hezbollah’s control weakens, such as the curtailing of Iranian attempts to smuggle cash to Hezbollah via the Beirut International Airport.
Another complex issue that stands before them is maintaining the delicate Lebanon-Syrian relationship. Reinventing these relations is a crucial task for President Aoun, ensuring Lebanese sovereignty, and territorial respect are effectively translated into actions.
The restoration of sovereignty is of utmost importance, but it is inseparable from the task of rebuilding state institutions and creating a vibrant economy. Aoun, a career soldier, has mostly remained uninvolved with the political discourse surrounding the necessary reforms to restore order in Lebanon, starting with the banking sector and public finances.
The political leanings of the future prime minister and the constitution of the cabinet warrants careful consideration. Without such deliberation and effective actions, substantial international assistance seems unfeasible.
External aid and international goodwill, while crucial to Lebanon, are not the sole factors in its revitalization. The Lebanese people themselves have to make the tough decisions needed to resurrect a fully functioning nation. Now, it appears such an opportunity is tangible.