Many times, holiday dinners are about putting on a brave face in an uncomfortable situation, trading small talk with less-than-pleasant company. One can equate this scenario to Justin Trudeau’s soiree in Florida with the then-incoming US President. Well, there are no tales of great friendships between Trudeau and Donald Trump, but preserving some semblance of cordiality remains beneficial for both nations, even if only for the duration of a meal.
The contrasting cultural and political landscapes of Canada and the United States were starkly illustrated by the consecutive elections of Trudeau in 2015 and Trump a year later. While Trudeau proudly displayed his ‘progressive’ principles like gender equity in his cabinet, overt overtures towards climate agreements, higher taxes for the rich for wealth redistribution, and a warm welcome for immigrants, Trump held fast to more conservative values.
Trump’s policies reflected his foundational beliefs, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, offering tax incentives to wealthier citizens, enforcing border security, and addressing both sides of racial conflict. Opposite poles in their respective countries, these leaders seemed to represent two societies on divergent paths.
Fast forward to the present and Trump’s popularity hasn’t waned. Meanwhile, Poilievre, poised as Trudeau’s successor for Canada’s Prime Minister, hasn’t quite donned the symbolic red hat, but hints at policies resonating more with Trump’s playbook than Trudeau’s. Poilievre vows to retract Trudeau’s signature policy on climate change, tighten immigration control, secure the border, and divert away from ‘woke’ trends.
As Canada potentially leans towards a Trump-like leadership, does this imply the countries are not as dissimilar as they appeared to be? After perceived divergence following Trump and Trudeau’s elections, are the North-American neighbors charting a course towards political resemblance?
Examining beyond the ripples of electoral politics, certain trends suggest a parallel trajectory for Canada and the US: surging pessimism about the future, especially amongst younger adults. The American election occurred when 50% of 18 to 29-year-olds felt the American Dream was a distant memory. Simultaneously, in Canada, an increased proportion of adults in that bracket felt social mobility edging downwards, fueling their own sense of disillusionment.
Young Canadian adults feeling worse today than their parents at their age, a sentiment that has doubled in the last decade. A majority of this youthful demographic anticipates the next generation will bear an even harsher reality. This pessimistic outlook isn’t limited to Canada.
In both Canada and the US, those dissatisfied with their nation’s current state outnumber those content, with the former expanding and narrowing the satisfaction gap. Over the past five years, the percentage of young, disgruntled Canadian has doubled, leading to a potential rejection of progressive parties.
Variations between the nations, however, persist. Canadians are generally more inclined towards racial fairness and prefer a larger government with more services, contrary to American preferences. Opposition to topics like abortion and gun control remain prevalent in the US, but marginal in Canada.
Despite these differences, Canadians are entering 2022 in a considerably glum mood. Many fear the state of the economy and harbor declining trust in federal and provincial governments’ abilities to address critical issues such as economics, health care, climate change, immigration, and housing. It wouldn’t be far-fetched to predict an escalation in apprehension.
Potential economic fallout from US tariffs looms over the Canadian economic landscape. Additionally, Canada’s struggle with an anticipated surge of refugees from the US could further exacerbate existing insecurities within the population.
A political shift in Canada’s future is highly likely, with a government marked by a different worldview and priorities. However, this would be regulated by Canadian statutory parameters distinct from the American system, limiting the potential shift towards a Trump-like leadership. Simply put, the future Canadian government will have its own set of hurdles to overcome.
Important among these is the requirement to retain Parliament’s confidence, the existence of a less politicized judicial system, the unique society of Quebec with its individual language and ‘liberal’ culture, and the obligation to negotiate terms with 10 provinces and three territories.
Thus, while adapting to the global socio-political alterations, the upcoming leadership will also have to negotiate within the fabric of their own country’s values. Even as Canada braces for the unforeseen challenges of 2025, the nation’s distinct principles further diverge them from their southern counterparts.
While the emerging trend of dissatisfaction and pessimism indicates a similarity between Canadian and American societies, deeper analysis reveals the disparities outweigh the similarities. Key cultural, social, and political differences persist between the two nations which remains reflective in their governance and policy-making.
Aligning to the ideologies of its American neighbors does not necessarily predict the future of Canadian politics. Changing times and leadership will undoubtedly bring surprises, many of which might be unpleasant, but a complete convergence of Canadian and American political cultures is unlikely to be among them.