President-elect Donald Trump’s lead pollster, Tony Fabrizio, recently shared insights into the 2024 election, crediting Vice President Kamala Harris herself for providing the Trump campaign with its most impactful advertising material.
In a joint interview with campaign advisor Chris LaCivita for Politico, Fabrizio noted that ads utilizing Harris’ own words were among the most effective in swaying voters. “There was so much [content from her speeches], we couldn’t use all of it,” Fabrizio explained, emphasizing the abundance of material derived directly from Harris’ public statements.
Harris’ Popularity Wave
Fabrizio also reflected on the trajectory of Harris’ campaign, observing that while she experienced a surge in popularity when she first became the Democratic nominee, that momentum quickly waned. “It was like a wave coming up on the shore,” Fabrizio said. “The wave hit its high-water mark and then just receded back. The one thing she was never able to do was close the sale.”
He attributed this to what he saw as the Harris campaign’s inability to deliver a coherent message. Highlighting their inefficiencies, Fabrizio pointed out that the Harris team ran 162 unique creatives across digital and TV platforms in the campaign’s final week, compared to Trump’s 50.
The Ad Strategy
When asked which ads resonated most with voters, Fabrizio’s answer was straightforward: “Any ad where [Harris] was talking was effective. Using her words. And there were a ton.” He noted that her own remarks often worked against her, providing the Trump campaign with a steady stream of content to highlight.
Harris’ Misstep with Key Voter Groups
LaCivita added that the Harris campaign miscalculated its approach to two crucial voter groups: low propensity voters—those who rarely vote—and persuadable voters. He explained that Harris’ team underestimated the size of the persuadable voter base, assuming it was only around 4 to 6 percent, when the Trump team identified it as closer to 10 to 12 percent.
“We focused the entire campaign on the issues that mattered to persuadable voters early,” LaCivita said. “Tony modeled them, and we tracked what they were thinking. That drove all of our decision-making.”
Lessons from the Race
Fabrizio concluded that the Harris campaign’s failure to deliver a clear, consistent message, coupled with the Trump team’s disciplined focus on persuadable voters, ultimately tipped the scales in Trump’s favor. As the Trump campaign prepares for his historic return to the White House, the lessons from this election will likely shape strategies for future races.