Mexico is working fervently to evade a crisis at its boundary with the United States, in anticipation of a potential second term for Donald Trump, during which wide-scale deportations could be enacted. It is the belief of U.S. authorities that approximately 11 million unauthorized individuals, predominantly originating from Mexico and Central America, are currently inhabiting within the United States. In December, Trump expressed a severe threat to institute heavy 25-percent tariffs on products imported from Mexico, responding to migrant issues and drug smuggling matters.
As the Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum has been keen on pacifying Trump’s aggressive stance by establishing mechanisms to halt migrants from reaching the U.S.-Mexico border. During a conversation held with Trump on November 27, Sheinbaum stated her government’s strategic approach towards addressing migrant caravans before they manage to reach the border. Since the commencement of this strategy in November, numerous migrant caravans departing from Southern Mexico aiming for the U.S. border have been dissolved, often after receiving permits acknowledging their residence within Mexico.
Stephanie Brewer, the WOLA’s Mexico Director, a U.S.-based institution dedicated to upholding rights throughout the Americas, revealed to AFP that Mexico is currently adopting a ‘containment and exhaustion’ approach towards dealings with migrants. After Sheinbaum assumed office on October 1, elicit Mexican activities, such as the interception of approximately 5,400 unregistered migrants per day have escalated. This figure is significantly higher compared to the end of her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s term, where the daily tally stood at around 3,400, as suggested by official December 3 figures.
Throughout Trump’s first tenure, Obrador’s controversial decision to enact thousands of border patrol officers served as a barrier for Central American migrants, thereby receiving Trump’s approval. However, some activists’ forecasts of an imminent mass migration to the border, incited by the perceived start of Trump’s second term, have proven to be hasty predications, as they have yet to correspond to reality.
With the harder stance on migration policies imposed by U.S.’s exiting President, Joe Biden, shelters in the bordering Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez have reported low occupancy rates for a prolonged period. The U.S. government data indicates a decline in the count of Border Patrol encounters with migrants crossing the border illicitly from Mexico; the numbers dwindled to roughly 54,000 in September from an earlier peak of nearly 250,000 in December 2024.
Juan Fierro, director of the El Buen Samaritano hostel in Ciudad Juarez, has reported not receiving any new migrants in the past three months, theorising that stricter detention measures in Mexico, followed by transport back to the country’s south, may be the cause. Previously in 2018, Mexico acquiesced to U.S pressures to start accepting non-Mexican migrants who were deported from U.S, with the exchange that Trump would revoke his declared tariffs.
Deportation activities were expedited throughout the Covid pandemic under Trump, citing public health risks as a justification for the swift expulsion of migrants entering from Mexico. This policy was upheld by President Biden until May of 2023. During these three years of the policy’s implementation, Mexico accommodated nearly three million deported individuals, with foreigners comprising 40% of this figure, as per official statements.
In the past year, instead of deporting non-Mexican migrants to Mexico, the United States has begun to directly extradite these individuals to their respective countries of origin. This practice is one that President Sheinbaum is keen to perpetuate under Trump. ‘Our primary duty is to accept Mexicans,’ Sheinbaum emphasized this month, while also alluding to the possibility of accepting migrants from nations like Venezuela, which does not welcome deportation flights from the U.S.
In another important aspect of her strategy, Sheinbaum assigned Foreign Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente with the task of conversing with the United States regarding the protection of Mexicans’ rights, including the rights of the approximately six million undocumented Mexicans inhabiting U.S. soil.
‘I am here to convey an unequivocal message to the collective community of Mexicans in the United States: you are not alone,’ de la Fuente expressed, demonstrating Mexico’s continued support and diplomatic stance towards protecting the welfare of its citizens, irrespective of their legal status.