A growing sense of apprehension regarding criminal activity is palpable among U.S. citizens. The issue of crime consistently emerged as a primary concern among the electorate preceding the 2024 general election. Disappointedly, some previous reforms have been repealed this year in at least two jurisdictions and inmate counts in various states are experiencing an uptick following almost a decade of continuous contraction. The discourse surrounding crime and prevention has regrettably evolved into a predictable and overwhelmingly partisan issue. More concerning, decisions seem to be increasingly detached from substantive evidence indicating effective measures and ineffective ones.
The right and the left wings of the political spectrum each have their accurate insight and areas of misconception. As a researcher and economist, my advice to both factions would be to set ideological biases aside, and rather, prioritize a robust analysis of the available evidence with a view to establishing a cross-party platform centered on public safety.
The progressive advocates generally hold an accurate view in their belief that punitive ‘tough on crime’ strategies, still favored by many conservatives, are over-applied. For a considerable amount of time, the U.S. has sought to limit crime rate by instituting severe penalties. Incarcerating individuals who pose a tangible threat to societal safety does indeed result in safer communities – thus, the prison system will eternally retain its necessity.
However, the typical pattern of criminal behavior shows that many quickly transition out of criminality. There is an abundant amount of empirical data demonstrating that the propensity to engage in criminal activities escalates until individuals reach 18 to 20 years of age, after which it declines. (Criminal involvement is primarily the domain of the younger demographic). This implies that a significant number of individuals are kept behind bars despite no longer presenting an immediate threat to society.
Such measures result in not only unnecessary expenditure but also bear no impact on enhancing our collective safety. One could argue that prolonged sentences might act as an effective deterrent to potential perpetrators – they might think twice if faced with the prospect of harsh sentencing. Yet, studies consistently assert that the likelihood of apprehension is a far stronger deterrent. Criminals likely don’t factor in the long-term consequences thus the imminent risk of arrest is likely more of a deterrent than the potential future incarceration.
Nonetheless, the current figures indicate that the chance of an individual being arrested in the U.S. is not only low but also on the decline. The number of arrests per reported offenses, known as the clearance rates, registered barely 41 percent for violent offenses (including homicides) in the year 2023. The same rates for non-violent offenses, including burglary and theft, were as low as an appalling 14 percent in the same year.
Tragically, an overwhelming number of criminals escape reprisal for their illegal activities. This raises challenging questions about the efficacy of our current criminal justice system and prompts us to reevaluate the policies underpinning our approach to crime and punishment.