In a ruthless two-month conflict, Israel comprehensively crushed Hezbollah, exterminating their leader Hassan Nasrallah and obliterating the group’s entire hierarchy. Sparked by Hezbollah’s announcement of attacks upon Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 in support of Gaza, the intense warfare wrecked havoc, leading to thousands of casualties, staggering injuries and the ruin of over 100,000 residential and commercial properties. The tumultuous strife drew to a close with a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, pushed through by the U.S. involvement and Nabih Berri, the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament. It was futilely stamped by Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, backed by ill-conceived American endorsements to Israel.
Celebration is far from the tone evoked by this agreement. While it may have led to the demolition of Hezbollah’s hold on Lebanon, it has left a swirling vortex of uncertainty in its wake. The question that remains is what happens next, and more importantly, what is to be done by the imminent administration and Congress to shield U.S. stakes and assist the Lebanese in their uncertain fate? It is obvious who benefits from this ceasefire deal, and it is tragically not the common Lebanese people.
Israel, ruthless and strategic, thrives in the surreal aftermath. Not only has it initiated the downfall of Hezbollah’s leadership and ensured their expulsion from southern Lebanon, but it has also claimed dominance over a region that had often been a thorn in its side. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with this move, has reinforced northern Israel’s security, and gained operational command over southern Lebanon for the next 60 days. As part of the deal, Israel retains the right to act in self-interest in southern Lebanon, should any future threats materialize. For the Israeli citizens, the conclusion of the war brings an illusionary sense of stability and allows them to reclaim their homes, having faced displacement for months.
And then we see the Biden administration, unexpectedly placed in an advantageous position due to the ceasefire. Approaching the end of his term, President Joe Biden cashes in on this ceasefire as a foreign policy victory. Biden’s mediation between U.S. and Israel has led to a seemingly successful truce, offering Biden a hollow opportunity to boast this as a de-escalation achievement, conveniently ignoring the misery meted out to Lebanon as a consequence of his actions. Notably, under his watch, Iran’s political interference in Lebanon persists, reflecting poorly on his leadership.
Hezbollah’s primary sponsor, Iran, also comes out seemingly unscathed, despite sacrificing its pet project to reach its broader strategic ends. Iran’s vouche for Hezbollah’s downfall in southern Lebanon has opened doors for potential nuclear negotiations with the next administration. Though it appears as a regional influence drawback for Iran, it signifies Iran’s readiness to trade short-term defeats for significant gains on the long run. Troublingly though, it does keep its fingers still active in Lebanon, albeit away from Israel’s gaze.
Nabih Berri reaps success in the political turmoil. Hezbollah’s destabilization has led to Berri’s ascension as the new Shia leader in Lebanon. He has taken reins of the remnants of Hezbollah, thus tightening his influence over Lebanon’s political gears. The deal ensures his position as a decision-maker and secures his control during the upcoming presidential election, and the subsequent government formation.
But the people, the average Lebanese civilians, have borne the brunt of this conflict. In their thousands they have died, tens of thousands wounded and hundreds of thousands uprooted from their homes. Southern Lebanon, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and the hamlets of the Bekaa Valley are in ruins – with infrastructure in shambles alongside home and businesses. Already cornered by years of economic downfall, this war has added salt to their wounds.
The Lebanese identity, as a nation, is another casualty of this agreement. The treaty only serves to embolden Lebanon’s political dysfunction, with the country’s sovereignty diminished even further. Berri and his cohorts arise stronger, but Lebanon itself remains fenced within a vicious circle of corruption and stagnation. With Berri at the helm of the selection of the next president and government, any hope of progress or reform comes crashing down.
As the dust settles, the Lebanese are left with little recourse but to rally together if they are to ignite any hope of receiving international support. Unless they demonstrate political resolve to uproot long-entrenched corruption and sectarianism, the U.S. and the Arab world will not intervene conclusively.
The embattled populace and their representatives need to reclaim their streets and parliament, pushing for immediate presidential elections. The objective must be to dislodge Berri and his regime from controlling the political process.
Moreover, the incoming American administration and Congress will have a path to tread that necessitates concrete action. First, they must lend their support to the Lebanese Armed Forces, the last beacon of credibility in Lebanon. Strengthening this Institution will balance the remnants of Hezbollah and the rising influence of the misdirected Berri.
Secondly, they must impose sanctions on Berri and his network. Ignoring their unchecked control could spell disaster for Lebanese democracy and American interests alike.
A third measure could be a rejection of the ‘army-people-resistance’ axiom. The argument that Hezbollah’s military is core to Lebanon’s defense must be obliterated. Any attempts to resurrect this structure under Berri’s directive would only perpetuate multifaceted instability in Lebanon.
A close inspection makes it evident that the Israel-Hezbollah agreement is not a diplomatic victory, but rather a harrowing experience for Lebanon. Israel and Iran walk away with tactical wins, leaving Lebanon shattered – its citizens shouldering the burden of destruction and deep-rooted graft.
Lebanese people must revolt to redeem their sovereignty and hold their leaders accountable. Else, the spiral of hopelessness will only tighten. The moment for action is now – on their streets, within their parliament, and against those who threaten to annihilate the remainders of Lebanon’s prospects.
Yet, amidst this turmoil and uncertainty, one tiny glimmer of hope remains. That the Lebanese, united in their struggle and shared hardship, can rally together and begin the long, arduous process of rebuilding – both their country and their collective identity. But they must act quickly and decisively, for the clock is ticking, and with each passing moment, the task becomes ever more daunting.