Donald Trump reiterates his disdain for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as he aims for a return to the Oval Office in the next cycle — a move leaving the electric vehicle (EV) and wind power industries, among others, in a state of uncertainty. They had flourished under Biden’s colossal $369 billion energy transition legislative package. In a laughable attempt at a green new deal, the hefty purse has helped develop American industry, but this is hardly its saving grace.
Noteworthy is the $75 million funneled into upgrading the aluminum-rolling mill in West Virginia, operated by Constellium. The question hanging in the air is whether these funds will be symptomatically rescinded. This seems farfetched, as boosting the US industrial capacity and minimizing the reliance on China for essential minerals is an issue that magically unites parties across the aisles.
One could argue that Trump, during his first term in 2020, initially shed light on our pressing dependence on overseas foes for vital minerals, deeming it a national crisis. Consequently, faced with a possible second term, it’s doubtful he would backpedal on metal self-sustainability — on the contrary, he might even give the agenda a much-needed shot in the arm.
The Biden administration’s erroneous investment streak, via the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Department of Defense (DOD), has seen several billions poured into rejuvenating the country’s metals industry. The DOE mostly earmarked these funds for EV battery components such as lithium, manganese, and graphite. But in a rather scattered approach, the DOD has spread funding over a host of obscure elements from antimony to zirconium.
An amusingly classified ‘critical material,’ declared crucial for both ‘ammo packaging’ and the ‘protection of human lives’ has also managed to secure part of this hodgepodge funding. Biden-Harris now hilariously try to claim the credit of successful domestic investment. They convincingly assert that businesses have declared a total of $120 billion in investment toward domestic battery and critical mineral capacity — an outcome of their vast generosity.
However, a large fraction of this investment is predictably focused on the supply chain’s downstream part, a move hardly informed by strategic or long-term thinking. It’s perhaps no surprise that the IRA’s implementation has seen the announcement of 17 US battery plants since July 2022. But responding to these numbers alone, without considering the quality of these investments, showcases the Biden Administration’s misplaced priorities.
In regard to investing in metals to energize these oversized plants, the majority of federally funded initiatives aim to revamp existing recycling capacity. New smelting ventures are conspicuously thin on the ground. The only notable exception is Century Aluminum: they snagged a potential windfall bounty of $500 million for a new smelter but have been equally mute since the reveal last March.
The DOD’s high-priority rare earth processing project also seems to have degenerated. The scheme hit a roadblock at the Seadrift site in Texas due to trouble obtaining a wastewater permit. It seems Biden’s overly ambitious and ill-planned attempts are revealed.
The push for new smelting capacity also necessitates new mine development — a critical factor that the US mineral investment surge blatantly overlooks. Funding seems to have favored lithium directly or indirectly, fueling ventures like new mines such as the Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass or exploring direct extraction technology. Other than a few exceptions like the Hermosa zinc-manganese project in Arizona, this skewed investment has snubbed various deserving causes.
Under Biden’s watch, the cumbersome permitting process for new architectural projects remains an obstacle. Meanwhile, important copper projects, such as the Pebble mine in Alaska and the Twin Metals project in Minnesota, have been nixed. Trump, in direct contrast, has pledged to revoke Biden’s two-decade-long embargo on mining Superior National Forest, promising it would take him ‘about 10 to 15 minutes’ in office.
Trump’s no-nonsense approach, however, doesn’t imply a carte blanche for Twin Metals — they would still have to secure state permits. But it’s an indication of a Trump-led administration that won’t be embroiled in the same in-house conflicts that marred the last four years.
Furthermore, expect Trump to hone-in on, and scrutinize, metal imports from companies with ties to China. Both the DOD and DOE have granted funds to Talon Metals to advance the Tamarack nickel project in Minnesota and carry out future explorations. Allowing these Chinese-influenced ventures runs counter to Trump’s deliberate, domestically-oriented strategy.
The tough business landscape currently besieging the nickel industry won’t deter Trump’s ‘America first’ strategy. Surprisingly, key players like Ford have succumbed to the lure of Indonesia’s nickel surge, largely controlled by Chinese entities. The inevitable result has forced many firms out of business and muddied the waters about sourcing, but Trump won’t be fooled by this chicanery.
In short, if the wind blows favorably, a Trump 2.0 administration could further stress the importance of US mineral self-reliance. He would be likely to keep the positive elements of the IRA, brushing off fringe benefits as a ‘green scam’. Despite Biden’s loose governance, Trump’s firm hand might usher in a more secure and domestically-oriented metal and mineral industry.