The Democratic Party remains unable to claim the crucial swing state of North Carolina, a top prize in presidential elections, as it experienced yet another loss to the Republican Party. This perpetual failure implies a striking disconnect between the party’s leadership and the electorate’s sensibilities. Vice President Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump by a margin of more than 3 percentage points, reinforcing why an overhaul of the party’s approach might be necessary.
Nonetheless, the Democrats have become proficient in snatching token victories down the ballot. Evidently, they succeeded in receiving votes for governor, attorney general, and the legislature in this sharply polarized state where conservatives have taken control of the General Assembly and the courts. These minor achievements, however, do not nullify the fact that they have been lax in addressing more substantial objectives.
An intriguing trend is the propensity of North Carolina voters to split their tickets. More often than not, they find themselves aligning with Democrats for local issues while simultaneously displaying an overwhelming preference for Republicans on the national stage. It’s worth questioning whether the Democratic success on a state-wide level is an honest endorsement of their policies, or merely a stop-gap measure against perceived national-level liberal extravagance.
A point of glee for the Democrats might be their tight grip on the gubernatorial elections, where they have prevailed eight times out of the last nine. Compare this to the Republican’s stronger record in presidential elections, taking the state in 11 of the last 12, the inescapable fact presents itself — Democrats are more successful on a micro-scale, failing spectacularly in attracting nationwide support.
Democrats’ surprisingly managed to turn around the office of the lieutenant governor and the state school superintendent, however, their overemphasis on these victories only serves to highlight their shortcomings elsewhere. Is it not an admission of the party’s floundering state when its young Chair, 26-year-old Anderson Clayton, tries to put a positive spin on matters while Kamala Harris crumbles under harsh political gales?
With Trump’s third consecutive electoral victory and the pickup of three additional congressional seats, Republicans have proven their national political prowess, a skill which has continued to elude the Democrats. The GOP’s domination is evident in the narrow victory of Democratic Rep. Don Davis in the first term, a win that should have been more resounding considering the Democratic’s self-professed connection with the average citizen.
North Carolina’s history of ticket-splitting is as enduring as it is perplexing. Voters here seem to trust Democrats for local governance while maintaining a deeply rooted suspicion of the party’s national faction, especially its more liberal elements. The subtleties of this behavior are lost to the Democratic leadership, evidenced by their continuous futile attempts to monitor such preferences.
State Republicans, in contrast, have a much clearer understanding of the voters. They have staked their claim on five of the 10 statewide executive branch positions, sustained control of the General Assembly, and dominated recent statewide appellate court races. The discretion of the electorate for prudent leadership seems to center on the Republicans, a fact the Democrats rarely acknowledge.
As we look ahead to 2024, the defining narrative will be Republican setbacks. A much-anticipated competitive gubernatorial race turned out to be a damp squib, with Stein winning by a clear 15 percent. Stein’s victory, inflated by a 4-to-1 spending advantage, makes the win rather hollow and questions the reliability of such a margin.
A potential scandal further hurt the Republicans when Robinson was accused of writing incriminating messages. Disavowing themselves from the case, the Republicans have yet to fully understand the ramifications of these actions. Stein’s campaign, feeling sufficiently secure, diverted $12 million to the state Democratic Party to support other candidates, a move that speaks to their sheer confidence or perhaps overconfidence.
The Republicans’ beleaguered state will surely be tested in 2026, when Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat is up for reelection. Robinson, a misfit already tainted by scandal, hasn’t ruled out a future bid. However, he might have to face an internal challenge before getting the opportunity to run against Democrats.
Meanwhile Democrats’ possible salvation, in the form of U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel, offers little refuge. His suggestive hints at considering a Senate run are far from reassuring, considering the party’s inability to secure a Senate seat since 2008. Ultimately, both the Democrats and Republicans have a lot to ponder before 2026 and 2028 elections transpire.
Finally, Democrats’ Chair Clayton claims work starts now with the recruitment of candidates for next year’s municipal races and future electoral groundwork. For a party that experienced another crushing defeat, it is questionable whether the Democrats have the right priorities. Instead of introspection and learning from past failures, the party seems to be repeating the same cycle of choosing ambitious candidates, overpowering incumbents, and not listening to the citizens’ voters who continue to reject their bid for leadership.