In a recent round of data released by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on October 22, 2024, key insights were gained into the happenings along the U.S.-Mexico divide during fiscal year 2024, concluding September 30. This period saw a heightened effort to curtail immigration into the United States, leading to a decrease in the migrants that were held in CBP custody. However, this simultaneously gave rise to several dire human rights issues and complications.
Five significant trends concerning immigration and security at the border were exposed during the year. A significant decrease in migration was observed, with around 2,135,005 individuals making it into the custody of the CBP at the U.S-Mexico border. Compared to previous years, this represented the smallest figure since fiscal 2021 and was a 14% drop from fiscal 2023.
A significant factor contributing to the decline was the enhanced operations to thwart migration attempts. Key to this was the policies implemented by the Mexican authorities, who, beginning in January, took strict measures to obstruct migrants traversing Mexico with the intention of reaching the U.S. border. From January through August, Mexico registered encounters with approximately 925,085 migrants.
These encounters with migrants in Mexico were nearly three times the yearly total for 2022. However, instead of detaining or deporting these individuals in large numbers, Mexico chose another route. Tens of thousands of migrants were transported towards the southern areas of the country.
Further contributing to the downslide in migration was the U.S. authorities’ response. After the Mexican policy implementations had brought the Border Patrol’s apprehensions down by half from December 2023 to January 2024, further reductions were made by the Biden administration. The authorities set up a proclamation and rules in June restricting most entry points for asylum seekers to the U.S when the numbers were high. This caused a significant fall in the figures for those released into the U.S. interior after claiming asylum.
The effects of the clampdown were such that the migrant demographics encountered by the Border Patrol and at port entries consisted of the following countries: Mexico, Venezuela, Guatemala, Cuba, Honduras, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti, El Salvador, and China.
Unfortunately, these measures to curtail migration in 2024 did not come without substantial human costs. Non-governmental organizations and media outlets reported a plethora of abuses experienced by migrants. These included harsh treatment, separation from family members, eventual kidnappings, racially, gender, and LGBTQ+ related discrimination, rejection of vital health services, and incrementing migrant fatalities.
The Biden administration’s migration reduction efforts reached a standstill after a while. The number of apprehensions by the Border Patrol barely fluctuated, falling within the 54,000 to 58,000 range since July. However, despite notable downshifts from record-highs in late 2023, migration began to slowly rise again since August 2024. This rise was driven mainly by Venezuelans leaving their homeland following controversial July 28 elections, where the incumbent governing party disregarded a perceived victory by the opposition.
Among the migrants encountered in 2024, children and families made up 43 percent. This figure includes 916,125 migrants, comprising of minors and parents with children, out of a total of 2,135,005, making it the second-highest proportion ever since 2012. It is likely this is the second-highest ever in history, due to a pattern observed, wherein the share of single adults began to increase under the Title 42 pandemic prevention measure that led to rapid expulsions of migrants from the border over 2.9 million times.
The Title 42 authority had an inadvertent effect of simplifying the rerun of border crossings for single adult migrants, causing their share of migrant encounters to grow, while the proportion of child and family migrants reduced. Following the end of Title 42 in May 2023, immigration patterns once again began to resemble the pre-pandemic configuration. The proportion of single adult migrants began to decrease, and that of migrants constituting children and families began to increase.
The pandemic caused a noticeable shift in the geography of migration. Sectors that were traditionally favored destinations among migrants for extended durations saw significant changes. San Diego, California, held the top position for decades (1973-1997), followed by Tucson, Arizona (1998-2012), and then Rio Grande Valley, Texas (2013-December 2021). However, in the post-pandemic world, the sector leading in migrant apprehensions has consistently changed every few months.
Starting April 2023, i.e., after the discontinuation of Title 42, five of the Border Patrol’s nine sectors had periods when they were the busiest. Since then, either Tucson or San Diego has been the most active sector, signifying a westward drift in migration. This came as migrants started favoring California and Arizona over Texas, especially after the enactment of the Biden administration’s asylum limitations.
Despite a significant decline in total migrant deaths when compared to the appalling highs of 2022, the ratio of migrant fatalities in relation to the overall migrant population (based on Border Patrol apprehensions) remained more or less consistent. The preliminary calculations for 2024 show that for every 100,000 apprehensions by the Border Patrol, 37 migrant remains were found, a figure that is marginally lower when compared to 2023, and slightly decreased from 2022.
An odd trend was observed with drug seizures along the border, specifically concerning the potent opioid, fentanyl. For the first time since it was discovered, seizures of fentanyl dipped to 21,148 pounds in 2024 from 26,718 pounds the previous year. The cause behind this drop is not clear, especially considering the heightened efforts of the CBP, in terms of both technology and targeted operations, to detect and curb its influx.
Other drug seizures painted a mixed picture. Cocaine seizures rose by 10 percent, and methamphetamine by an astonishing 30 percent. In contrast, heroin moved in the opposite direction, marking a decline of 21 percent, and marijuana followed suit with an 8 percent decrease.
The experience of the past decade emphasizes the inefficacy of austere crackdowns and the essential need for controlled, lawful routes for migration. Among the potential solutions include work permits, humanitarian parole, a robust refugee resettlement program, as well as family reunification and temporary protection initiatives. A functioning asylum system with a fully restored right to seek protection at the border is also needed, operated by border management officials who uphold human rights and are held liable for any violations.