‘If patriots keep up the momentum, we will be swearing in President Trump in January,’ the memo declares.
On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, a memo from former President Donald Trump’s campaign suggests that Democrats face a “massive turnout deficit,” with early voting data showing strong Republican performance. Tim Saler, chief data consultant for the Trump campaign, shared with senior leadership that Republicans are outpacing past elections in early and absentee ballots, setting a promising stage for Election Day.
Saler highlighted insights from Democrats’ own strategists, including former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina, who expressed concern on MSNBC: “The early vote numbers are a little scary… Republicans do have an advantage in early-vote numbers.” Messina noted that early votes “will look a little bit different than 2020, and that’s scary,” referring to stronger GOP numbers this year than in previous cycles.
Saler interpreted Messina’s comments as downplaying the issue, adding, “They’re a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day.” He also cited Obama strategist David Axelrod, who told CNN that Democrats cannot rely on last-minute turnout for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Democrats, who traditionally rely on early voting, may be overestimating their Election Day turnout potential, according to the memo: “If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?” Saler asked.
With Republicans urged to vote, the memo expressed confidence in Trump’s strong positioning heading into Tuesday. “If patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January,” Saler concluded.