In every election cycle, there are bound to be a multitude of narratives spun by politicians aiming to gain public support. A case-study that offers valuable insight into these political tactics is former President Donald J. Trump’s emphasis on crime rates across the nation during the years following his presidency. His frankness and exuberance paint a captivating picture, which may or may not align entirely with official statistics. However, the power of this storytelling technique cannot be underestimated.
Throughout his presidency, Mr. Trump maintained a consistent narrative about a rising nexus of criminal activities blanketing the nation’s cities. His delivery often left an indelible influence on public sentiment, despite the presence of information that would seem to contradict these claims. For instance, throughout his post-presidency in 2024, Mr. Trump has been particularly vocal about crime within urban areas, touching on this topic during numerous rally speeches.
One of such events brought him to Greensboro, N.C., where his focused analysis highlighted a slight uptick in crime in Washington. It’s important to context that this was indeed an exception, rather than the rule. In fact, data from the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice attests to an overall 3% decrease in violent crime and a 10% average decline in homicides across 32 major cities in 2023.
Next, during a well-attended rally in Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump articulated his own interpretation of crime in New York City. While political discussions often provide an opportunity for perspectives to butt heads, there are instances where the city’s official data could be perceived as fundamentally contrasting. Indeed, New York demonstrated a 5% drop in crime and a stunning 19.4% plummet in homicides as of March 2024, by the city’s records. Even the grand historical panorama of the city’s crime rates, particularly from the 1980s and 1990s convey a drastically different story.
Running alongside this, Mr. Trump was no stranger to the national spotlight. When engaged in an interview with a Dallas news station, he warned of an impending nationwide criminal wave. It’s worth noting that both violent crime and property crime rates have gravitated towards their lowest levels in years recently. Notwithstanding this, Trump’s narrative has undeniably stoked public conversation and in some cases, concern.
As part of the political landscape, speeches at national organizations are not uncommon. Mr. Trump’s address to the National Rifle Association delved into the correlation between crime rates and democratic policies. The discourse in this type of event is invariably heightened by the equally dramatically political context.
At a conservative gathering in Detroit, Trump’s speech brought the methodological modifications in crime reporting into the limelight. It’s no secret that the FBI underwent a change in their data collection system in 2021. While there was a temporary fall in the coverage of agencies reporting to this new system, standard statistical processes ensured that the national crime rate remained an accurate reflection of the entire population rather than only the section represented by the reporting agencies.
In line with his unique style, at a Philadelphia rally, Mr. Trump dubbed the official statistics as ‘fake,’ putting forward an alternate data set originating from the Department of Justice. To think about this objectively, the dataset indeed indicated a rise in violent crime rate from 2020 to 2022, but it’s important to mention that these numbers were similar to those witnessed during Trump’s presidency. The rate in fact started to decline again in 2023.
Mr. Trump’s figures found their way into further discussions at an Atlanta rally. His portrayal of a stark rise in various forms of violent crime became the cornerstone of his address. Contrasting this with empirical data, however, shows an multifaceted and nuanced image that defies such simple characterizations.
This frame of reference featured again when addressing the Fraternal Order of Police union in Charlotte, N.C., tying the rise in violent crime to Vice President Kamala Harris’ term. Said points continued to persist in Trump’s narrative throughout the presidential campaign, carving a distinctive place in the public discourse about crime rates.
Using his platform, Mr. Trump drove similar viewpoints forward in numerous settings, such as during a presidential debate, and also in an interview with Fox News. In these contexts, he leaned into an interpretation of revised FBI statistics that showed an increase in violent crime. However, these supposed increases were ensnared with complexities due to an administrative change over in crime data reporting systems.
Mr. Trump continued to emphasize these figures, interpreting them with a strategy that emphasized a rise in criminal activities during an era under the leadership of President Biden and Vice President Harris. This narrative forms a significant pillar of his re-election bid, captivating audiences with its straightforward depiction.
In the realm of political strategy, it’s not uncommon for leaders to cling to narratives that resonate with their base, and Mr. Trump is certainly no stranger to this approach. His unwavering focus on crime rates and their supposed rise serves as a strong rallying point for his supporters, generating a powerful discourse around law and order.
While it’s abundantly clear that Mr. Trump’s interpretation of crime statistics has sparked potent conversations within the public sphere, a deeper dive into the data reveals a more intricate portrait of crime within the United States during this period. Stats bear out that crime experienced a decline in the aggregate, despite the narrative of rising lawlessness.
Ultimately, although Mr. Trump’s dialogues revolve around an image of increasing crime rates, both statistical and anecdotal evidence sings a different tune. Still, the former president’s strong storytelling abilities have ensured a place for his interpretation within the public eye. As such, it’s essential to stimulate further discourse and encourage the interpretation of data through various lenses, further enriching our conversations and understanding of national crime rates.