Pre-election polls show Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, ‘blue wall’ territories Democrats feel they should dominate comfortably. However, it’s a much narrower lead than one would expect for such a ‘popular’ figure, particularly among independent voters. The space between Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump stands at a shocking 50%-48% in Pennsylvania, 51%-48% in Michigan, and a cramped 50%-48% in Wisconsin. All results are within the respective states’ poll margins.
Polls were conducted from October 27 to 30, and even then, the leads Harris had failed to exceed the margins of errors. They were 3.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 3.5 percentage points in Michigan, and 3.4 percentage points in Wisconsin. As much as the Democrats try to portray this as a victory, the polling results are hardly convincing enough, with such slim leads only demonstrating a lack of broad appeal on the part of Harris.
What’s startling is that independent voters, usually the balance holders in any political race, have seemingly started tilting towards Harris, although not by a significant margin. The shift in sentiment might seem massive in comparison to Trump’s 4-point advantage among independent voters in Pennsylvania during September, but the numbers don’t really tell a tale of sweeping dismay with the Republican candidate.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, the story is the same. Harris leads by only 52%-46% in Michigan and 51%-46% in Wisconsin among independent voters. This shows that the narrative being spun about a ‘huge’ swing in favor of Harris among independent voters is hardly justifiable by the numbers.
One of the highly trumpeted aspects of the 2024 election is the alleged gender-based voting pattern. It’s claimed that Harris receives more support from women, and Trump garners more votes from men. Yet the differences aren’t striking. Harris leads among likely women voters 53%-45% in Pennsylvania, while Trump counterweighs with a 51%-47% lead among likely male voters.
While Harris supposedly led by 55%-44% among likely women voters in both Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump stayed hot on her tails among likely male voters. He led by 52%-46% in Michigan and 53%-44% in Wisconsin. So, the gender advantage argument certainly doesn’t convey the whole picture, nor does it significantly tip the scales in Harris’ favor.
What’s astounding is that Kamala Harris, despite being a Democrat, isn’t finding the support she should within the Black voters’ community. These figures are particularly disappointing when compared to President Joe Biden’s strong connection with minority voters in the 2020 election. In resolve, Harris commandingly lags behind Biden who secured 92% of Black votes in 2020.
Statistics reveal that Harris leads Trump by 84%-16% among Black voters in Pennsylvania and 75%-25% in Michigan. This is far below the Biden’s stunning victory among minorities. Equally surprising is the shift among non-white voters in Wisconsin, with Harris grasping a mere 63% compared to Biden’s 73% in 2020. This depicts an astonishing fall in Democratic popularity among minority voters, one the party might have difficult time interpreting.
In an attempt to recover the dwindling support among minority voters, Harris seems to have courted white voters more than Biden did. However, even there, Trump maintains advantage over Harris, with 51%-47% lead in Pennsylvania and 51%-48% in Michigan, a slightly narrower margin than in 2020. This marginal change from 2020, however, does not compensate for the massive loss within minority voters.
Wisconsin also tells an interesting story where Trump still leads the white voters, 50%-48%. That’s after Trump’s solid performance among this demographic, leading by 6 points in the previous election. So, while Harris might wish to spin this as a chipping away of Trump’s white voters base, the truth is far from that.
The cited polls, which consist of phone interviews, texts, and online responses, draw from 1,642 voters in Pennsylvania, 1,429 in Michigan, and 1,549 in Wisconsin. The three ‘blue wall’ states’ citizens, which Joe Biden won in 2020, have voted together since 1988. This tradition was bucked only once by Trump’s victory in 2016, when these states helped him secure his acclaimed victory over Hillary Clinton.
Harris may hope for victory in the upcoming Nov. 5 election by capturing all three ‘blue wall’ states, but the question arises – can she rely on these slim leads to secure her desired presidency? Even if she can snag North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, where she’s ahead, it would be a heavy gamble.
Moreover, for a man as unpredictable and determined as Donald Trump, he might just need a single win in any of the ‘blue wall’ states. Combining that with victories in the Sun Belt states where he’s polling stronger, he might well take the 270 electoral votes needed to reclaim the presidency, sweeping the rug from under the Democratic hopeful.
It’s easy to see that while Kamala Harris might cautiously dream about becoming president based on the pre-election polls, her weak leads and unexpected fall amongst traditional Democratic voters show a path paved with uncertainties. The narrative spun by the Democratic camp is certainly teetering as the ‘blue wall’ might just flip red again in 2024.