Alarm bells are ringing for Democrats as Vice President Harris’s popularity continues to wane among young men, especially within minority communities. The Democrats’ desperate attempts to maintain unity within their party before Election Day are being jeopardized. Gender disparity is posing significant trouble for Harris and her campaign, with women showing skewed support towards Harris, but men gravitating towards former President Trump.
Harris, admittedly, does have a significant lead among young voters on the whole. However, her voter support among young men—especially young men of color—shows signs of decline, showing a potential entry point for Trump to swoop in, something that Republican strategist Mike Madrid describes as ‘extremely serious’. According to Madrid, this very trend may give Trump the edge needed to secure victory.
A recent poll from Yale University, held earlier this month, shows staggering results. While overwhelming support from younger female registered voters under 30 leans towards Harris, the lead becomes almost non-existent when considering young male voters. This nugget of information shows a potentially critical weakness for the Democratic Party.
Remarkably, even Harris’s standing among young Black and Latino men—typically consistent for the Democratic coalition—is weakening, according to a recent GenForward survey. This survey uncovered that almost a quarter of young Black men answered that they were favoring Trump, showing a worrying trend for Democrats. This trend becomes more prominent among young Latino men, where almost 44 percent stated that they supported Trump.
According to Data for Progress, a left-biased think tank, young women showed a strong inclination toward Harris but the results from young men were almost evenly divided. The slippage of young men’s support from the Democratic camp was not an overnight occurrence. Prior to Harris’s ascension to the Democratic nominee, the Harvard Youth Poll in April showed Biden’s troubling lead ahead of Trump by merely six points among young men.
Analyzing the backdrop, in the same period of the 2020 presidential election, Biden led over Trump by a staggering 26 points within the young male demographic group. Such a steep fall within a year leads to questions about the Democratic Party’s ability and effectiveness to retain their core voters.
Historically, the fissure between the Democrats and young men has been slowly widening over a considerable period. Former president Obama once cornered 62 percent of the 18- to 29-year-old men demographic, a figure that dwindled by the time of the next election. Melissa Deckman, CEO of PRRI, also highlighted the distinct political divergence taking place between young women and men.
Women across all age groups have grown more likely to associate themselves with liberal views over the years. Democrats, however, seem to be lagging in their efforts to channel attention towards young men who are increasingly edging towards Republican affiliations. Deckman perceives this migration towards Republican views among young men as a potential advantage for Trump.
The Trump campaign has not missed the opportunity to capitalize on these changing dynamics. At the same time, Democrats seem to be trailing ‘behind the curve’ in capturing the attention and interest of this demographic. With Harris’s entry, the Democratic party has seen a surge of energy among young voters, who seemed largely impassive towards President Biden.
However, Democrats’ have revealed an overemphasis on young women while neglecting their male counterparts. Strategists cautiously hope there is still room for Democrats to improve their standing among young Black and Latino men.
Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist, echoed this viewpoint stating Harris still has the potential to win over young men, particularly among the color community. However, this seems like a troublesome stretch considering the current trends. Madrid commented that many young men, including young Latinos, are enraptured by populist ideas, revealing an area where Harris might have fallen short.
In what appears to be a desperate bid to reclaim the trust and support of young men, Harris has started promoting more populist policies. She has proposed her own tax-on-tips policy and a bold housing plan. However, only time will tell if these attempts will be sufficient support from young men to counter the advantage Trump seems to be enjoying.
As it stands, the outcome of this political race will hinge on voter turnout. Traditionally, women have been the more reliable voters across age groups and races. However, given the shifting dynamics we’re witnessing, could this newfound support for Trump among young men provide a critical lever to cut Harris’s advantage? Only time will deliver the verdict.