The ex-President Donald Trump appears to persist with his slim advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona’s presidential survey this week. As Election Day on November 5 draws near, with early voting already taking place since the second week of October, the riveting race is starting to take shape. The voters who prioritize economy and immigration have steered Trump into leading position in the desert state. In contrast, those who worry about democracy lean more towards Harris, according to polling results.
The politicos following the presidential race in Arizona have seen a neck-to-neck contest in many public polls, which suggest a razor-edge race in the coming month. In the 2020 race, Trump lost Arizona by the lowest margin in any state, falling to President Joe Biden by less than an astonishing 11000 votes.
Illustrating a glimpse of hope for Trump, surveys from Arizona carried out over the past week indicate that Trump slightly pulls ahead of Harris amongst the likely voters. The politics of this state are witnessing a miraculous turn of events as Trump leads Harris by 3 percentage points, according to a new poll of likely Arizona voters.
One could argue that these results emphasize Trump’s unwavering popularity in the state, with 51% of the participating population backing him whereas Harris trails with 48%. A mirrored lead was observed in a poll of swing state voters, where Trump led Harris with the same 3 percentage point margin among likely voters in the survey, pulling in 49% of the support while Harris lagged behind with 46%.
In another swing state poll, Trump led Harris by a slim margin. He was backed by 48% of the voters, and Harris fell behind once again with 46%, thus placing Trump’s advantage over Harris at a mere 2 percentage points.
From a broader view of things, immigration emerges as a key issue in this election, unlike the presidential race four years ago. The economy consistently takes center stage for the voters from 2020 to 2024. As a reflection of this shift, the economy, COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare, the Supreme Court, and race relations were the big factors voters considered during their voting process in 2020.
Fast forward to four years later, the economy and issues at the southern border command the attention of the Arizona voters as they pick between Harris and Trump. It’s worth noting that the voters in Arizona seemed to make a strong division between their stance on immigration and their voting choices. Those who believe immigrants enriched or had negligible impact on Arizona are likely to champion Harris. But those who are convinced that immigrants from Mexico and Latin America harm their way of life are strongly rallying behind Trump.
Despite the clear sentiment, Harris has chosen to swing to the right when it comes to immigration, even visiting the Arizona-Mexico border to expound her border security plan. However, her proposal has failed to strike a chord with the majority of likely Arizona voters, more than half of whom believe border crossings will swell if Harris is elected.
On the other hand, over two-thirds of the voters are of the opinion that border crossings could plummet under Trump, bolstered by Trump’s vow to resort to mass deportations should he find his way back into the White House.
Another controversial issue in the campaign trail has been democracy, on which Harris seems to have a better footing. She garners support from 57% of voters who identify democracy as a key factor in casting their vote, eclipsing Trump by a 15-point advantage. The only issue which has a wider margin against Trump, however, is abortion, where over 70% of voters who consider it vital plan to back Harris.
One cannot brush away the deep partisan division in how Trump and Harris supporters view the Arizona’s electoral system. Despite a lack of solid evidence of rampant fraud in the 2020 election, more than half of Trump’s supporters express tepid confidence in Arizona’s election system, suggesting a widespread mistrust.
The mistrust deepens further with almost 47% of Trump’s supporters stating they believe the former president has a right to challenge the election results if Harris emerges the winner. A slightly larger fraction of Trump supporters, 49%, argue for acceptance of the results regardless of the outcome.
Conversely, displaying remarkable faith in the democratic process, a striking 82% of Harris voters insist she should respect the vote’s verdict, irrespective of the ultimate victor. The low confidence from the Trump faction and staunch faith from the Harris supporters highlight the polarized political climate of the state.