The latest national survey has uncovered a slight advantage for previous President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, in terms of support among nationwide Arab voters. The poll, conducted jointly by Arab News and YouGov, shows Trump securing endorsement from 45% of Arab voters, while Harris trails slightly behind with 43% support. An unexpected 8% of votes were leaning towards Jill Stein. A snapshot of the remaining voter sentiments showed a 4% interest towards Stein, with an undecided 6% and a reserved 2% choosing to maintain the secrecy of their vote.
The poll also sought answers on which political figure is most likely to broker a peaceful resolution to the Israel-Palestine situation. Trump managed to expand his edge here, receiving affirmation from 39% respondents who believe he might be more successful in this mission. On the other hand, only 33% felt that Harris would secure peace in the region.
Yet, despite their faith in Trump’s peace-brokering abilities, more respondents perceived Harris as having a greater sensitivity towards Arab America’s national concerns and problems. The poll revealed that 39% respondents view Harris as attuned to their needs, compared with 31% who believe Trump exhibits greater sensitivity.
But Harris’s relationship with the Arab-American populace faces a challenge due to the Biden administration’s support of Israel in their conflict against Hamas. These diplomatic alignments sparked a response within the American Arab community, leading to Harris losing backers.
This disenchantment was manifested in late summer when ‘Muslim Women for Harris-Walz’ decided to withdraw their endorsement for the Vice President. The organization further disbanded when a Palestinian representative was excluded from delivering a speech at the Democratic National Convention. Such instances have contributed to Harris’s struggle to maintain support among the Arab American population.
Meanwhile, in the past Presidential election held in 2020, it is believed that the majority of the Arab electorate, comprising 60%, favored President Biden over his opponents. This indicates a potential shift in their political alliances and voting inclinations.
Comparative polls by the Arab American Institute in October further reflect this slim margin favoring Trump over Harris among Arab voters. The numbers stood at 46% for Trump and 42% for Harris, bringing into focus the significant role this demographic can play in close electoral races.
Indeed, Arab voters are increasingly recognized as a crucial voting bloc in pivotal states like Michigan. This region is always sought after by Presidential candidates given its propensity to swing election outcomes, and Harris would probably need a good showing there to secure her position in the White House.
In an interesting nationalist turn of events, Trump has received the nod from the first Muslim mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, Amer Ghalib. Such local endorsements can play a significant role in helping candidates drum up support among the demographic.
Trump has not shied away from casting aspersions on Harris’s campaign alliances either. He recently criticized the Vice President for her campaign tour with ex-Representative Liz Cheney from Wyoming. Cheney is often attributed with the legacy of her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, who played a key role in the inception of the Iraq War.
Conflict legacy, geographic concerns, and community alignments are all factors affecting the voting dynamics. These dynamic factors are shaping an incredibly tight race between these two potential contenders.
As these conditions manifest, it has become clear that the Arab American community could play a larger role in shaping government policies and selecting leadership. Given the community’s clout in critically important states, their decisions have an impact well beyond their numbers.
Neither Trump nor Harris can claim a decisive lead among Arab American voters, which is a testament to the fluid nature of this demographic’s political preferences. Despite Trump’s perceived edge in this poll, the lead is slight enough to be overturned.
Relevant dynamics could change, and specific policy decisions could dramatically shift voting preferences. For instance, steps towards resolving conflicts in the Middle East, or decisions on American involvement in such, could sway this demographic either way.
It’s a tight, keenly watched political contest, a delicate dance with millions of Arab American voters watching closely. Their approval could make a difference in crucial geographic regions, influencing which way the election swings.
We are witnessing a period of transformation in the voting patterns of Arab Americans, as they increasingly realize their collective potential to effect change. For Trump and Harris, the act of engaging this growing voting bloc could bring about a significant shift in political landscapes.