The repercussions of Yahya Sinwar’s death, the head honcho of Hamas, are far from insignificant. This event could potentially halt the ongoing Gaza war, thereby setting Israeli hostages free while affording some respite to the suffering Gazan citizens. More notably, it could bring us closer to a two-state resolution between Israel and Palestine, an elusive goal since the Oslo Accord. Additionally, the consequential thawing of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia could mean a groundbreaking paradigm shift for the entire Muslim world.
Nevertheless, it’s naive to view Sinwar’s death as a panacea. Indeed, Hamas, under Sinwar’s leadership, was a stalwart opponent of the two-state solution and a vociferous advocate for the eradication of Israel through violence. The brunt of these rigid ideals was felt most potently by the Palestinians living in Gaza. Nonetheless, Sinwar’s demise, while vital for forward motion, simply isn’t the be-all and end-all solution.
Unless a rigorous Israeli leadership emerges to harness this opportunity presented by Sinwar’s demise, progress remains a far cry. An overbearing question looms: Can Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, embody the brave and strategic essence of a Churchillian leader to capitalize on this opportunity? Or would he falter and continue rejecting a crucial aspect – the participation of a revamped West Bank Palestinian Authority in an international peacekeeping force taking over from the Sinwar-commanded Hamas?
In recent weeks, pertinent actors such as Antony Blinken – the Secretary of State; Mohammed bin Salman – the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia; Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt; and Mohammed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, have sought to ideate effective solutions for post-Hamas Gaza after the devastating war: rebuilding efforts, nurturing Saudi-Israeli cooperation, and devising a new negotiation platform for Israel and Palestine.
Accommodating Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, seems a high priority. The proposal encourages Abbas to appoint an individual with a reputation matching that of the untarnishable economist and former PA prime minister, Salam Fayyad, to steer a new skilled cabinet that initiates reforms within the Palestinian Authority, extirpating corruption and uplifting its governance and security forces.
A revitalized Palestinian Authority would then officially request and participate in an international peacekeeping force that includes troops from U.A.E., Egypt, and potentially other Arab and European nations. This collaboration intends to supersede the Israeli military in Gaza, henceforth charging the Palestinian Authority with the responsibility of Gaza’s reconstruction using relief funds from Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., other Arab Gulf states, Europeans, and conceivably the U.S.
Immensely supported by Arab and international funds, a rejuvenated Palestinian Authority aspires to regain its standing in Gaza and restore the credibility of its fundamental Fatah organization in Palestinian politics, pushing the remnants of Hamas to the sidelines. This plan, currently under development by Israel’s minister of strategic affairs and several U.S. and Arab diplomats, presently only necessitates Israel to tolerantly allow the Palestinian Authority’s involvement in Gaza’s reconstruction as part of the international force, without needing to officially endorse it.
However, the Arab collaborators are aware that their participation in cleaning up Gaza via the Arab/international peacekeeping force is tied to a long-term goal of moving towards Palestinian statehood. Especially Mohammed bin Salman has been vocal about his precondition: For Saudi Arabia to proceed with normalization with Israel, the war in Gaza needs to end and any Arab peacekeeping force should be a stepping stone towards a Palestinian State. A similar stand is maintained by U.A.E. and Egypt.
President Abbas has a deep respect for M.B.S., and a diplomatic initiative to this effect could be a significant process for achieving not just an end to the war, but also setting up the stage for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel and the inception of an Arab peacekeeping force. But such an initiative will eventually need an Israeli commitment to a pathway leading towards Palestinian statehood.
This possible Israeli commitment is sure to spark aggressive opposition from extremist right-wing Israeli Ministers, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Following the demise of Sinwar and the subsequent breakdown of Hamas, they may seize this opportunity to unleash violence on surviving Hamas members residing in Gaza, in an attempt to advance their agenda of expanding Jewish settlements in Gaza and the West Bank.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long desired to assert his historical significance beyond a political tactician engaged in a survival game, but he has consistently shied away from taking courageous risks instrumental in altering the course of history. This provides him with a golden opportunity. One wonders if he will seize the moment and make a daring leap of faith or resume his familiar pattern of indecisiveness perhaps due to political convenience.
This momentous occasion beckons M.B.S as well. To secure a security treaty with the U.S., he needs to launch the process while the current American president retains the office, which necessitates M.B.S to normalize relations with Israel even before an actual Palestinian state is formed – all this while ensuring that both Israelis and Palestinians move firmly in this proposed trajectory.
With the possibility of ending Gaza killings, freeing hostages, and initiating robust diplomacy, the future unfolds tentatively. Should these leaders seize this historic moment, there’s plenty more to be optimistic about. Remember, this marks only the beginning – the true test lies in the actions and choices made hereafter.