The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, nearly a year old now, underscores the potential influence of the U.S. presidential election on the global arena. A fateful day in October 2023 saw Hamas militants slaughtering 1,200 Israelis, capturing 250 hostages and inadvertently sparking the continuous violence in Gaza. The response from Israel has led to a horrifying death count of over 41,000 individuals, according to Palestinian health authorities. With peace negotiations at a deadlock and regional discord on the rise, speculation grows that political timelines in the U.S. may be hindering the peace process.
In an interview, there was a somewhat self-praising statement: ‘No administration has helped Israel more than I have, none, none, none…and I believe that Bibi should always remember that.’ The person in question here was referring to Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister. ‘Whether he is playing his cards to influence the election, that’s uncertain, but it’s not something I’m betting on.’ Meanwhile, the backing for Israel remains, even as it carries out a constrained ground operation in Lebanon, aimed at the militant group Hezbollah. This operation unfortunately has resulted in innocent lives being lost.
There are proponents who argue that Israel should direct its firepower toward Iran’s nuclear installations as a response to the recent spate of attacks. This belief carries with it a strong criticism towards pursuing a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. There’s a prevailing notion that such a ceasefire would grant Hamas an opportunity to regroup and stage yet another attack.
The brutal civilian casualties in Gaza have been the center of attention. However, people seemingly still high-minded advocate for an arrangement that would halt the hostilities. ‘Ignoring such devastating sufferings is a luxury that we cannot afford. We must not become desensitized to this pain,’ commented a representative.
A particular Middle East Institute Senior Fellow offered an insight saying, while the succeeding U.S. president will play a crucial role in this war, there are boundaries to American influence. The current trajectory in the region is largely determined by the interests and actions of those present there. Nevertheless, the incoming president could dictate to a certain extent the post-war developments.
A declaration of support has been put forth for a two-state solution, advocating for the co-existence of Israel and an autonomous Palestinian state. However, this was less evident in a previous campaign.
During the presidential tenure, financial aid to the Palestinian populace was halted to pressurize the Palestinian leaders into consenting to a peace accord believed to heavily favor, and possibly unjustly, Israel’s interests. Yet, there are indications that support is dwindling within some voter groups. A recent survey showed variability in the reported ‘very likely’ voting turnout.
The role that the Gaza war is assuming in swaying voter behavior is unprecedented. In a different poll, the results showed an almost equal divide when voters were asked who they thought could better manage the Israel-Hamas war.