Recent polling discloses that the margin between ex President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, in the crucial states of Michigan and Wisconsin, is getting incresingly slim. In Michigan, among those who are probable to cast votes, 48% have indicated support for Harris, while Trump trails very closely at 47%. This puts the Republican and Democratic nominees on equal footing when considering the poll’s margin of error.
A similar scenario unfolds in Wisconsin, with Harris polling at 49% among likely voters, while Trump is in pursuit at 47%. A predominant issue for voters continues to be the economy, and Trump’s perceived expertise on economic matters is potentially supplanting Harris’ narrow edge in these northern key states.
This latest poll paints a different picture from its predecessor, where Harris led Trump by four percentage points – 50% to 46%, among those likely to vote in not only Michigan and Wisconsin, but also Pennsylvania. However, the dynamics of the race transformed substantially upon Harris becoming the Democratic nominee after President Biden decided to bow out in July.
With the election closing in at less than 40 days, current polling situates Harris nine percentage points ahead of Trump in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. This single electoral vote might play a decisive role in the Electoral College. By securing this district, in addition to winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Harris can reach the precise 270 electoral votes necessary for securing the presidency, even if Trump triumphs in the intense Sun Belt contestation.
Though Ohio is not categorized as a battleground state for this presidential race, it is the backdrop for one of the most fiercely contested Senate races. Here, Trump holds a six-point lead over Harris according to polls. Democrats have relished a lead in the presidential race in Wisconsin for several months, a state that has been determined by margins smaller than a percentage point in four of the previous six elections, the 2020 race included.
In the previous election cycle, Biden won Michigan by a three point margin in 2020, while Trump gained Michigan in 2016 by a margin of just three-tenths of a point. Another critical topic that emerged amongst voters of Michigan and Wisconsin was the topic of abortion, ranking second in importance after the economy.
The latest poll saw a surge in its relevance since May, with 18% of the respondents in the two states naming abortion as their primary issue, up from 13% in earlier polling. Harris runs ahead of Trump by 20 points in Michigan on the issue of abortion, but her lead shrinks to 13 points in Wisconsin.
Harris carried an even more substantial lead over Trump in August on the abortion issue, leading by 22 points. However, the political landscape’s continual dynamism has led to shifts in these standings. The political race might yet swing in different directions, acting as a testament to the political climate’s unpredictability.