Donald Trump is currently topping a quirky yet beloved “cookie poll” from Cincinnati’s Busken Bakery, a poll that has surprisingly predicted all but one U.S. presidential election since 1984. While not scientific, the bakery’s cookie poll gives an amusing look into voter sentiment—and so far, Trump is taking the lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris.
In the latest count, Trump claimed 54% of cookie sales (2,953 cookies) compared to Harris’ 39% (2,134 cookies). Meanwhile, an independent “smiley-face” cookie option is gathering 7% of votes (397 cookies). With the “poll” running until Election Day on November 5, it mirrors early voting for those with a sweet tooth.
“We joke that people can stuff the ballot box,” bakery president and CEO Dan Busken told The Post. Customers “vote” by purchasing cookies with the caricature of their preferred candidate, whether online or in one of the bakery’s four Cincinnati locations. The whimsical poll doesn’t limit how many cookies someone can buy, so “voters” can cast as many votes as they like.
Despite its light-hearted nature, Busken’s cookie poll has proven eerily accurate over the past four decades, missing the mark only once in the 2020 election when Joe Biden triumphed, despite Trump winning the cookie tally. Busken explained that their stores serve a diverse cross-section of Cincinnati, covering the city’s north, south, east, and west areas.
“It’s interesting that in a state like Ohio, and in a city like Cincinnati, there’s been such accuracy with this cookie poll,” Busken said. Ohio, long a political bellwether, picked the winner in every presidential race from 1964 until 2016. In 2020, however, the state backed Trump, though he lost the national election.
The cookie poll tradition was started by Dan Busken’s father, Page Busken, inspired by other novelty polls such as those predicting Super Bowl winners. A local artist, Jim White, draws caricatures of each candidate, which are then printed on the cookies, adding to the fun and festive nature of the contest.
However, with the increasing divisiveness of political campaigns, not everyone is laughing. Busken acknowledged that, compared to previous elections, some customers have been more vocal—and not always friendly—about the candidates.
Still, the bakery is continuing its 40-year tradition, noting that despite some partners opting out of selling the cookies, sales remain strong. In fact, this year’s “cookie voter turnout” is surpassing previous elections, Busken shared, with more sales in the first two weeks than in 2020.
As the U.S. braces for what is expected to be one of the closest elections in recent history, with many comparing it to the contested 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore, the Busken Bakery cookie poll remains a lighthearted way for Cincinnatians to engage in the election season. Whether this delicious predictor holds true once again remains to be seen.