Long Island, a populous suburban area to the east of New York City, is surfacing as a crucial political battlefield for the 2024 elections. Contrary to traditionally competitive hotspots like the Rust Belt, Georgia, or Nevada, it’s this three million resident-strong island that could potentially dictate the party that takes control of Congress. The battle for a U.S. House majority is intense, with Democrats being a handful of seats short, and unusually for an area with proximity to liberal Manhattan, Long Island is becoming an unexpected platform for high-profile political races.
Long Island is also an unanticipated stronghold for Republican influence within the otherwise Democratic-leaning New York. Outlining their campaigns on issues of crime, immigration, and the economy, GOP candidates have resonated with a demographic that seems to be shifting towards a more right-leaning political perspective. The Democratic Party’s recent decision to replace Joe Biden with Kamala Harris as the primary representative brings another element of unpredictability to the legislative races across the United States.
Republicans within the region have adeptly captured the growing discontent with progressive policies, placing themselves as a bulwark against the influx of extreme liberalism in Long Island. The effectiveness of this strategy is reflected in the Republicans’ success in local elections across Nassau and Suffolk counties of Long Island, demonstrating their control over all but one of the congressional seats. Despite New York being predominantly Democratic, this island near Manhattan presents an intriguing political dynamic.
Joe Cairo, chairman of the Nassau County Republican Party, remarked on the changes within the Democratic Party. He states that its present manifestation significantly deviates from what he remembers while growing up. People relocating to Long Island from the city, he suggests, are doing so out of dissatisfaction with the urban environment.
Republicans have had some substantial victories on Long Island particularly over the period of increased violent criminal activity during the pandemic. The seemingly dire conditions illustrated in media coverage of the city played a crucial role. All four of the Island’s congressional seats were won by the Republicans, and former U.S. Representative, a Long Island Republican named Lee Zeldin nearly conquered a significant surprise in the New York governor’s race, a position the GOP had not held for many years.
However, recent trends indicate that Democrats view Long Island as fertile ground to regain their standing in Congress. This sentiment is amplified by their recent success in a special election triggered by George Santos’ expulsion from Congress. Tom Suozzi, a Democratic candidate running on a centrist platform, clinched a victory against a Republican county lawmaker.
Anticipating a strong challenge in the upcoming election is Republican U.S. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, who’s vying for a second term in a district just east of Queens. In the 2022 elections, he defeated Democrat Laura Gillen by a margin of fewer than four points. Democrats are also mobilizing voters by cautioning about the potential implication on abortion rights if a Republican-majority federal government comes to power.
Following significant losses on Long Island during the 2022 elections, the Democrats are adjusting their strategies to appeal to moderate voters. New York governor Kathy Hochul has placed crime at the forefront of her agenda, managing to secure progressive support for amending bail laws and toughening penalties for assaulting retail workers. A contentious new driving toll for Manhattan was even suspended by Hochul after vehement resistance from commuters.
Hochul’s recent victory is minimized by Republicans, arguing that the competition faced was relatively unknown and on a day with low voter turnout and wretched weather. However, Democrats see value in Suozzi’s moderate approach as a strategic model for winning elections in Long Island. According to John Avlon, a Democrat running for a congressional seat against Republican Nick LaLota, success hinges on addressing voter concerns and occupying the political middle ground.
Nevertheless, Democrats may still struggle to dispel the impression of being excessively progressive, especially among suburban voters. A local resident, Joe Gillespie, believes the Democratic stance on crime, immigration, and social issues is too liberal, rendering it nearly impossible to reverse course convincingly.
In any discussions about the upcoming election, one figure consistently overshadows others: former President Donald Trump. Trump enjoys significant support among the suburban constituencies of Long Island, particularly among blue-collar workers and city emergency services personnel. Despite his shrinking margin of victory in Suffolk County and losses in Nassau County, the potential influence of Trump on Long Island’s electoral dynamics is undeniable.
As crime rates have dramatically decreased in the New York City metro area since the 2022 election, Republicans continue to emphasize it in their political narrative. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican, has gained favor with suburban parents by advocating for action against transgender athletes’ participation in women’s and girls’ sports teams, reflecting a political strategy utilized elsewhere by the GOP.
Now embroiled in a legal struggle, this policy has been labeled discriminatory by the state’s Democratic attorney general, Letitia James. However, Blakeman alleges ‘overwhelming’ local support for his proposal. He stated, largely, responses to his motions were strongly positive.
The Democratic Party, according to Blakeman, has moved too far left, alienating independent voters and sensible Democrats. Whether or not Long Island will serve as a crucial turning point in the 2024 elections remains uncertain. Both parties, however, remain hopeful.
In conclusion, despite being located in heavily Democratic New York, Long Island has become an improbable hub for the Republican Party. The Island’s shifting dynamics display both the complexity of suburban politics and its potential impact on national races. As such, the upcoming 2024 elections will provide a fascinating case study of the political battlegrounds in suburban America.