In a surprising turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris is neck and neck with former President Trump both on the national front and in key battleground states, as shown in recent polls. This unanticipated shift appears to have emerged from the ashes of President Biden’s faltering campaign, with Harris taking the helm and evoking a lukewarm response from Democratic voters, some minority groups, and women. According to a CBS News poll published on Sunday, Harris and Trump are vying for the national popular vote, each barely achieving majority support. This contest of mediocrity is highlighted by the fact that the survey’s margin of error stands at 2.1 percent.
Within decisive swing states, it’s a stalemate between Harris and Trump, both garnering an underwhelming average of 50 percent support across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Harris managed to catch up with the once leading Trump, amidst Biden’s ineptness, owing mainly to the reluctant return of key Democratic cohorts including minorities and women. Despite holding the vice presidency and leveraging her policies to appeal to female voters, Harris only manages to convince 70 percent of these women that her policies would favor them, compared to Trump’s 43 percent, hardly a landslide of confidence.
Anthony Salvanto, the director of CBS News’ polling center, known for his expert commentary, painted a picture of a reset for the Democratic party after Biden’s ill-fated bid. Salvanto suggested that Democratic voters were essentially coming to terms with their options, displaying a measure of forced enthusiasm. In his view, most women believe that Harris would guard women’s interests more than Donald Trump, despite debate over the effectiveness of her policies versus Trump’s. With 54 percent of women polled supporting Harris against Trump’s 45 percent, the vice president’s advantage remains tenuous.
To add insult to injury, male voters have mirrored the slight female-led swing towards Harris, preferring Trump over Harris by the same margin. Singling out minority voters reveals a grudging return to the Democratic camp, due to mounting skepticism about Biden’s capacity for leadership. Indeed, in one CBS News poll conducted in July, before Biden’s withdrawal, only 73 percent of Black voters were willing to vote for Biden, as compared to the 24 percent who had planned to vote for Trump.
This narrow margin, a sharp contrast to Biden’s overwhelming support from the Black vote in 2020 (92 percent), could have paved the path for a Trump victory in the Electoral College. Interpreting this, key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia that pushed Biden over the top would’ve favored Trump. Based on the new CBS poll, Harris seizes a meager 81 percent of the Black vote, facing off against Trump at 18 percent.
Enigmatically, 80 percent of the Black voters surveyed opined that Harris’ policies would advantage Black communities more than Trump’s, despite empirical evidence of such claims being ambiguous at best. Harris’ hurried anointment as the Democratic nominee by the party’s delegates may have afforded her some benefit, primarily due to the undefined perception of her in voters’ minds. The Reuters poll revealed that a mere 18 percent of respondents felt that Harris’ policies echoed those of Biden’s, a viewpoint seen as surprising given her nearly four years in the vice presidency and her staunch support for his policies.
A larger portion, 64 percent of those surveyed, fell in the camp that believed that Harris’ and Biden’s policy platforms were ‘mostly the same’, which may imply a level of transferability of Biden’s lackluster performance to Harris. A smaller group of 18 percent claimed Harris’ and Biden’s platforms mostly or entirely diverted from each other, reflecting a certain degree of confusion among voters. The current state of the electoral battleground provides no clear advantage to either candidate.
Harris, despite her leadership position and campaign promises, is either on par with Trump or only marginally ahead across the decisive battleground states. In Nevada, Harris has squeaked out a small lead over Trump, outpacing him by a paltry two percent. The competition is heating up in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, where Harris and the former president are evenly matched, though it’s clear that neither candidate has a firm grip on these territories.
Harris lags in Wisconsin, though the difference is within the margin of error. However, Trump’s trysts with questionable policy decisions and his tumultuous presidency don’t put him ahead either, thus leaving room for speculation. Further south, in the key states of Georgia and North Carolina, Trump’s support outstrips that for Harris by three points. This may be a slight victory for Trump, albeit just outside the margin, something hardly celebratory.
Harris’ struggle to truly distinguish her policies and leadership style from those of the largely unsuccessful Biden serves her poorly in the race. Despite taking over the Democratic mantle from Biden, she has been unable to shed the perception of her policies as largely identical to her predecessor’s. This lack of a unique, redefining stance may hinder her potential to secure a successful run for the presidency.
The seeming resurgence of support for Trump, following his controversial term paints a surprising picture of the shifting political landscape in the United States. On the other hand, Harris’ inability to captivate her core voter base and expand her appeal significantly remains a major challenge for her campaign’s momentum. This close tussle between the two aspirants underscores the deep divide within the nation, with no candidate able to decisively swing voters’ sentiments in their favor.
Under Biden’s uncertain leadership, Democratic voters are left with Harris, who has yet to prove her potential. The consensus between voters of varied demographics and ideologies on Harris’ policies’ relationship with Biden’s reveals something quite telling. The remnant echoes of Biden’s lackluster reign resonate with voters, defining the apprehension present within the electorate.
However, in the political tug of war playing out, neither Harris nor Trump have been able to assert themselves as the candidate to beat. They are both just scraping by, within the margin of error across many battleground states. Even the demographic groups that traditionally align themselves with one side, such as women and minorities, have shown uncertainty in their support.
The current political scenario highlights the lackluster appeal of both candidates and raises serious questions about what the American people truly seek in their leaders. It casts in sharp relief the polarization within American society and the fragmented support enjoyed by both candidates. As the electorate evaluates its options, the eventual outcome hangs in the balance.
Overall, the race between Harris and Trump can be perceived as a litmus test, assessing the political climate of the United States. It reveals the nation’s growing anxiety about the future direction of policy making and leadership. Moreover, this intense competition between Harris and Trump, compounded by the shadows of the Biden administration, indicates an unprecedented shift in American politics.