For over 20 years, HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’ series hasn’t exactly led to hard knocks for those involved in NFL betting on the featured team. However, it hasn’t been a jackpot for bettors either.
Since its debut in 2001, the teams showcased on ‘Hard Knocks’ have recorded a straight-up (SU) record of 152-154-1 and against the spread (ATS) record of 162-139-6, equaling a success rate of 53.8%.
One thing remains consistent: the featured team brings in a significant amount of business for sportsbooks. Last year, the Detroit Lions enjoyed this benefit, finishing with a 9-8 record and an impressive 12-5 ATS. With just one episode aired this year and Episode 2 scheduled for Tuesday night, ‘Hard Knocks’ is already influencing an increase in betting on the New York Jets.
Johnny Avello, the director of operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, sheds light on how ‘Hard Knocks’ is impacting the Jets’ odds across various betting markets. It’s worth noting that back in February, before the Super Bowl LVIII odds were posted, the Jets were listed in the +3500 to +4000 range at most sportsbooks.
\After a disappointing 7-10 season, the team found themselves at a low point. However, their fortunes changed as they headed into Week 13 with a 7-4 record, only to falter in the remaining games.
By the NFL draft in late April, when the Jets acquired Aaron Rodgers, New York made a staggering leap to +1500 or thereabouts, putting them among the top half-dozen teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl.
As a major market team with a substantial following among fans and bettors alike, the Jets have garnered a significant amount of attention.
Despite the Jets’ upward trajectory prior to the start of ‘Hard Knocks,’ it is undeniable that the show has had a remarkable impact in the 24 hours following the airing of the first episode. Johnny Avello reveals, ‘We’ve definitely seen a spike.
Over that 24-hour period, no other team received more action. The show has driven people to bet on the Jets.’ Avello believes that the spotlight on Aaron Rodgers and other players, as well as the likability of coach Robert Saleh, has played a significant role in attracting bets on the team.
DraftKings initially set the Jets’ Super Bowl odds at +4000, but they have since improved to +1600. Thus, a $10 bet would now yield a total payout of $170, making it clear that betting on the Jets earlier would have been a profitable move.
The surge in interest goes beyond Super Bowl odds. Other markets, such as regular-season win totals and prop bets on the Jets making the playoffs, have experienced substantial activity thanks to ‘Hard Knocks.’
Avello points out that an impressive 79% of the handle is on the Over 9.5 win total, highlighting the confidence placed in the Jets.
Looking at AFC championship odds, the Jets rank third in ticket count, behind Kansas City and Cincinnati, and are second in terms of money placed, trailing only the defending champion Chiefs. ‘Hard Knocks’ has undeniably brought attention to the Jets across various betting markets.
‘Hard Knocks’ has featured 19 teams since its debut in 2001 (excluding the 2003-06 seasons and 2011). Out of these, only six teams achieved double-digit wins, and merely seven teams made it to the postseason.
The 2010 Jets were the most successful ‘Hard Knocks’ team, securing a wild-card bid and advancing to the AFC Championship Game before eventually falling to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The question remains: will this year’s Jets join the ranks of ‘Hard Knocks’ success stories or become the 13th team to miss out on the playoffs?
According to Avello, previous ‘Hard Knocks’ teams have varied, ranging from good teams like the Rams in 2020 and the Browns with high hopes in 2018 to Tamp Bay in 2017 before landing Tom Brady. This year, the Jets are entering with a strong team and a talented quarterback, leading to high expectations all around.
When analyzing the Jets’ win total and playoff chances, Avello highlights a split between the bigger bets and the ticket count.
While the money is skewed towards Over for the win total and Yes for making the playoffs by a ratio of 4/1, the ticket count is more evenly distributed, with a ratio of 2/1. Avello acknowledges that some of the larger bets and sharper money are inclined towards Under for regular-season wins and No for making the playoffs.
He also emphasizes the tough competition within the division, with perennial contenders like Buffalo, an improving Miami, and the ever-challenging New England Patriots.
In summary, HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’ is a highly regarded series that has historically not affected betting outcomes for the teams featured.
The New York Jets, this year’s focus, have already experienced a significant surge in betting activity across several markets, including Super Bowl odds, regular-season win totals, and playoff prop bets.
Their acquisition of Aaron Rodgers and the likability of coach Robert Saleh have undoubtedly contributed to the increased interest. With cautious optimism, fans and bettors are eagerly anticipating the Jets’ performance this season, as they hope for a successful ‘Hard Knocks’ story to unfold.